A systematic review on the effectiveness of sex offender risk assessment tools in predicting sexual recidivism of adult male sex offenders

Tully, Ruth J.; Chou, Shihning; Browne, Kevin D.

doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2012.12.002

Cited by 84 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 130 publications

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“…However, comparison of overall model strength (AUC), which should be done only with great caution for the same reason, 41 shows that the AUCs of our models are similar to those of leading sexual violence risk tools that require one-on-one clinical assessment. 40,42 Using conventional interpretive guidelines, 43 the AUC of the intra-family minor model was excellent and those of the other three models at the lower-end of acceptable . Replication of the analysis in more recent cohorts would be needed to determine if sufficiently strong-stable models could be developed to make intensive prevention efforts cost-effective.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…It is difficult to compare COR to similar operating characteristics of other violence prediction tools developed for use in forensic samples 40 because of vast differences in populations. However, comparison of overall model strength (AUC), which should be done only with great caution for the same reason, 41 shows that the AUCs of our models are similar to those of leading sexual violence risk tools that require one-on-one clinical assessment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Sexual Assault Perpetration in the U.S. Army Using Administrative Data

Rosellini

Monahan

Street

et al. 2017

American Journal of Preventive Medicine

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Introduction The Department of Defense uses a universal prevention framework for sexual assault prevention, with each branch implementing their own branch-wide programs. Intensive interventions exist, but would be cost-effective only if targeted at high-risk personnel. This study developed actuarial models to identify male U.S. Army soldiers at high risk of administratively-recorded sexual assault perpetration. Methods This study investigated administratively-recorded sexual assault perpetration among the 821,807 male Army soldiers serving 2004–2009. Other temporally prior administrative data were used as predictors. Penalized discrete-time (person-month) survival analysis (conducted in 2016) was used to select the smallest possible number of stable predictors to maximize number of sexual assaults among the 5% of soldiers with highest predicted risk of perpetration (top-ventile concentration of risk [COR]). Separate models were developed for assaults against non-family and intra-family adults and minors. Results 4,640 male soldiers were found to be perpetrators against non-family adults, 1,384 against non-family minors, 380 against intra-family adults, and 335 against intra-family minors. Top-ventile COR was 16.2–20.2% predicting perpetration against non-family adults and minors and 34.2–65.1% against intra-family adults and minors. Final predictors consisted largely of measures of prior crime involvement and the presence-treatment of mental disorders. Conclusions Administrative data can be used to develop actuarial models that identify a high proportion of sexual assault perpetrators. If a system is developed to routinely consolidate administrative predictors, predictions could be generated periodically to identify those in need of preventive intervention. Whether this would be cost-effective, though, would depend on intervention costs, effectiveness, and competing risks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Sexual Assault Perpetration in the U.S. Army Using Administrative Data

Rosellini

Monahan

Street

et al. 2017

American Journal of Preventive Medicine

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“…The RNR model inherently relies on utilizing various scientifically validated evaluation methods and assessment measures to classify, manage, and treat criminal offenders (Bonta and Andrews 2007). A large body of literature has amassed over the past few decades examining sex offenders through the RNR framework with the assistance of a combination of assessment tools and techniques (Hanson and Morton-Bourgon 2009;Joyal et al 2014;Olver et al 2018;Tully et al 2013). Thus, approaching the evaluation of sexual offenders based on the RNR model may prove advantageous.…”

Section: Legal Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neuroanatomical Differences Among Sexual Offenders: A Targeted Review with Limitations and Implications for Future Directions

Kirk-Provencher

Nelson-Aguiar

Spillane

2020

Violence and Gender

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As sexual assault and child sexual abuse continue to be worldwide public health concerns, research has continued to explore factors associated with sexual offending. Structural and functional neuroanatomical brain differences have been examined in an effort to differentiate sexual offenders and their behavior. This targeted review searched PubMed and Google Scholar for empirical studies using brain imaging techniques to examine possible structural or functional differences among control groups compared with at least one group of sexual offenders with contact offenses. This targeted review summarizes the structural and functional findings of 15 brain imaging studies (i.e., computed tomography, diffusion tensor imaging, magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, and functional magnetic resonance imaging), which suggest possible differences in brain size and gray matter volume, cortical thickness, white matter connectivity, and specific structural and functional differences among brain regions (fronto-temporal region, amygdala, prefrontal cortex, etc.). The methodological limitations of brain imaging studies and the associated findings with regard to sexual offenders are highlighted, as research indicates that many of the proposed differences in brain structure and function are not unique to this population. We further highlight several limitations to using neuroimaging studies to examine this population of interest, including publication bias, small sample size, underpowered studies, and all-male samples. As these results are mixed and findings are not seemingly unique to sexual offenders, we suggest future sexual offender research may benefit from focusing on more financially feasible options, such as neuropsychological assessment approaches, to assess for and attend to offenders' criminogenic and rehabilitative/therapeutic needs in alignment with the risk-need-responsivity model.

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“…For example, deviant sexual interests are a risk factor among juvenile sex offenders, which is not the case for nonsex offenders (Worling & Curwen, ). For this reason, some scholars have questioned the effectiveness of risk assessments that were not designed with sex offenders in mind (Tully, Chou, & Browne, ). Contrary to this argument, some research findings also indicate that risk assessment tools designed to aid in predicting recidivism for general types of offending can aid in predicting recidivism for sex offenders as well (Olver, Stockdale, & Wormith, ; Ragusa‐Salerno, Ostermann, & Thomas, ).…”

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confidence: 99%

Validation and examination of the Ohio Youth Assessment System with juvenile sex offenders

Papp

Campbell

Miller

2019

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary In this study, we examined the use of an actuarial risk assessment tool—the Ohio Youth Assessment System‐Disposition Tool (OYAS‐Disposition Tool)—with juvenile sex offenders. Specifically, the main goals of the study were to (a) examine the predictive validity of the tool with sex offenders and (b) explore the nature of the use of professional discretion used to override the tool. The sample consisted of 3,235 youth from a large juvenile county court in the Midwest. The results indicated that the OYAS‐Disposition Tool was a significantly better option for predicting general recidivism for sex offenders than it was for non–sex offenders. The tool was also an effective method for predicting sexual recidivism. Most importantly, however, the use of professional overrides significantly reduced the ability of researchers to apply the tool to predict new court petitions and adjudications to nonsignificant levels. Finally, several justifications were commonly used for overrides: treatment needs, offense seriousness, and use of an alternative sex‐offender–specific assessment. Policy Implications The findings in this study highlight several important policy implications that would improve the assessment process for juvenile sex offenders. First, agencies using specialized risk assessments designed for sex offenders may consider applying a general risk assessment tool to identify a broader set of criminogenic needs and to predict risk of general recidivism. Second, there is a need to evaluate policies and practices that allow for the use of professional discretion with sex offenders given that they reduce the predictive validity of the risk tool evaluated. The high rate of overrides for juvenile sex offenders and justification for their use go against best practices in corrections. For instance, overrides were often justified based on offense seriousness; however, focusing on evidence‐based criminogenic risk factors provides the best accuracy in predicting future offending. In this study, we call into question court policies that allow for overrides based on crime type or based on a practitioner's professional judgment concerning a juvenile's level of service needs. Last, agencies should consider validation research within their agency before full adoption of a general risk assessment tool to quell concerns about the use and accuracy of a tool for special populations like juvenile sex offenders.

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A systematic review on the effectiveness of sex offender risk assessment tools in predicting sexual recidivism of adult male sex offenders

Cited by 84 publications

References 130 publications

Predicting Sexual Assault Perpetration in the U.S. Army Using Administrative Data

Predicting Sexual Assault Perpetration in the U.S. Army Using Administrative Data

Neuroanatomical Differences Among Sexual Offenders: A Targeted Review with Limitations and Implications for Future Directions

Validation and examination of the Ohio Youth Assessment System with juvenile sex offenders

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