A systems approach to forecast agricultural land transformation and soil environmental risk from economic, policy, and cultural scenarios in the north central United States (2012–2062)

Turner, Benjamín L.; Wuellner, Melissa R.; Nichols, T. Philip; Gates, Robert J.; Tedeschi, L. O.; Dunn, Barry H.

doi:10.1080/14735903.2017.1288029

Cited by 22 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…This shift is projected to continue through 2030 with more than 15% increase in cultivated area and a 50% increase in soil degradation risk as cultivation expands on more marginal soils (Turner et al. , ). This study identified several significant legacy effects and relationships on soils with few‐to‐moderate limitations and high cultivation potential.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Avoiding degradation will require careful management of the level and timing of crop residue utilization by livestock to minimize compaction and maintain sufficient residue cover to limit erosion (Turner et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As land transformation continues to shift toward cultivation, threats to biodiversity as well as livestock productivity escalate (Johnston , 2014, Wright and Wimberly 2013. This shift is projected to continue through 2030 with more than 15% increase in cultivated area and a 50% increase in soil degradation risk as cultivation expands on more marginal soils (Turner et al 2017. This study identified several significant legacy effects and relationships on soils with few-to-moderate limitations and high cultivation potential.…”

Section: Place Soil Measures In a Landscape And Socio-economic Contexmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Our assessment of GCU provides support to the hypothesis that careful crop-livestock integration may contribute to meeting both crop and livestock demands without significant degradation in regulating and supporting EGS beyond what ordinary cultivation events already create, while simultaneously providing enhanced provisioning services through meat production. Avoiding degradation will require careful management of the level and timing of crop residue utilization by livestock to minimize compaction and maintain sufficient residue cover to limit erosion (Turner et al 2017).…”

Section: Integrate Soil Measures With Biophysical Conditions: Local Smentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As cropland expansion continues west into more arid climates and onto soils less suitable for intensive cultivation, environmental externalities (e.g., soil erosion; loss of biodiversity habitat) are expected to rise (Turner et al. , , ). Understanding the legacy effects these soils either inherit or pass on, and the soil functions they influence, could aid and inform managers and policymakers about cultivation decisions and their long‐term consequences, as well as enhance future soil and water conservation efforts (Wuellner et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ecosystem functions in mixed cropland–grassland systems influenced by soil legacies of past crop cultivation decisions

et al. 2018

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As global food demand continues to grow, private landowners and agricultural managers have increased incentives to convert grasslands to expand crop production. These conversions are increasingly occurring on marginal soils susceptible to rapid degradation, which threatens delivery of diverse bundles of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). A growing number of studies have demonstrated that previous land management decisions continue to effect current soil ecosystem functions in the long‐term (i.e., soil legacies persist after previous management has ceased). Such legacies could further alter EGS deliveries, especially in mixed‐use agroecosystems (grass and croplands) that are susceptible to large, rapid changes in land use. The objective of this work was therefore to identify potential soil legacy effects and recovery time delays after land transformation and to place those effects in the context of EGS tradeoffs. Our overall hypotheses were that soil legacies can be traced back to management's EGS prioritization, that soil legacies persist due to the nature of land use (grass versus cultivation) and the time (years) under management, and that anthropomorphic manipulation from cultivation creates specific kinds of soil legacies. Using a systems approach that integrated ecosystem indicators, physical soil data, and human dimensions, we tested our hypotheses in South Dakota (USA), along the 100th Meridian (west), where recent and rapid cultivation expansion has reached historic highs. We conducted intensive interviews of four private land managers to identify historical land transformations, current goals, and strategies employed to achieve those goals on varying sites within their operations (nine grassland sites, nine cultivated sites; n = 18). Ecosystem assessments were conducted on each site using the US interagency assessment protocol Interpreting Indicators of Rangeland Health. Field aggregate stability and soil organic matter using loss‐on‐ignition were also measured. We found that (1) soil legacies continued to be detectable up to 20 yr after land transformation; (2) producers’ personal values of EGS were directly linked to observed land uses and ecosystem ratings; and (3) opportunities for reintroducing grasses into crop rotations or crop–livestock integration could likely improve EGS delivery from converted lands while enhancing rural economic outcomes at a low‐ to no‐cost trade‐off between ecosystem functions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Place Soil Measures In a Landscape And Socio-economic Contexmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Integrate Soil Measures With Biophysical Conditions: Local Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Ecosystem functions in mixed cropland–grassland systems influenced by soil legacies of past crop cultivation decisions

et al. 2018

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Modelling environment and poverty factors for sustainable agriculture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Regions of China

et al. 2018

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Modelling is a good tool for understanding the complex interactions of the agricultural systems; however, few studies have used a combined method of text mining and system dynamics to analyse and simulate the agricultural system. We propose the topic modelling-system dynamics modelling (TM-SDM) analytical framework to extract, synthesise, and dynamically simulate the factors of land management, disaster, pollution, and poverty in the system. Specifically, 1,598 English language publications were collected to analyse the main concerns and conceptual structure of the sustainable development in the case study area based on topic modelling. Historical data from 2000 to 2014 are used for simulation and prediction based on system dynamics modelling, exploring and comparing different policy scenarios. The results show that policies about education and training, sewage treatment, infrastructure construction, and soil erosion control would help poverty reduction significantly. Sewage treatment policy reduces the incidence of human disease and sewage discharge significantly.Education and training policy has the greatest impact on the improvement of poverty reduction and yield of crops, and the environmental protection scenario has the best performance on maintaining the cultivated land. The balanced development scenario benefits both the poverty reduction and environmental protection concurrently.Focussing on a systems approach to improve the sustainability of agriculture, this paper could have a positive impact on the development and implementation of sustainable agricultural systems. The TM-SDM analysis and modelling framework that we proposed has a generic nature, which could be applied to the further research and decision-making on sustainable agriculture and other fields involving complex systems.

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Exploring the landscape of system dynamics archetypes: A systematic review

Sánchez

2024

Syst Res Behav Sci

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System dynamic archetypes reflect common problematic behaviours that occur in the real world. The high level of abstraction embodied in these archetypes is both promising and daunting. Identifying relevant archetypes for real‐world problems is not a straightforward task. In this work, we aim to provide a comprehensive background for understanding current knowledge on the application of system archetypes. The methodology is based on a systematic literature review. Most of the works contribute with prescriptive models that address problems in specific areas. These models generally tackle complex problems where social, environmental and political issues converge. The unit of analysis encompasses geographical units, organizations and artefacts. The steps followed in the development are described with different level of detail. Stakeholders' participation is typically integrated into the development process. Some reported problems are that archetypes could induce a hypothesis that does not include all relevant factors; some participants may have difficulty in understanding the models; confidence in results, difficulty of having data to configure all the variables; and the cost burden for small enterprises.

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A systems approach to forecast agricultural land transformation and soil environmental risk from economic, policy, and cultural scenarios in the north central United States (2012–2062)

Cited by 22 publications

References 52 publications

Ecosystem functions in mixed cropland–grassland systems influenced by soil legacies of past crop cultivation decisions

Ecosystem functions in mixed cropland–grassland systems influenced by soil legacies of past crop cultivation decisions

Modelling environment and poverty factors for sustainable agriculture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Regions of China

Exploring the landscape of system dynamics archetypes: A systematic review

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