A tale of two suburbias: Turning up the heat in Southern California's flammable wildland-urban interface

Garrison, Jessica Debats; Huxman, Travis E.

doi:10.1016/j.cities.2020.102725

Cited by 17 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…An illustrative case is the predatory land buying observed after the August 2023 wildfire in Lahaina, Hawaii (Spencer 2023). Although a housing price hike is not guaranteed post-wildfire (Garnache 2023;Ma et al 2023;Mueller et al 2009), the observed population expansion in this study, coupled with the growing emphasis on home affordability, suggests an increasing wealth gap along the WUI, favoring more expensive homes in the rebuilding process (Garrison and Huxman 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 57%

“…Real estate development is notable in the interface WUI, where fuel density is relatively low. Studies have also extended to pinpoint disparities in resources available to combat wildfire risk between socioeconomically affluent and underprivileged communities (Garrison andHuxman 2020, Masri et al 2021) now residing in the WUI, revealing different reasons for their relocation over a decade ago. Recognizing the varied impact of wildfires across socioeconomic status, a thorough investigation to identify the most socially and economically vulnerable census tracts, where the population has increased the most in the past decade, provides insight into how policy change can happen through proper resource allocation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA

Laszewski,

Jia,

Viner

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA's WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA's total population now resides in census tracts with significant population increases over the past decade, labeled as "high-growth tracts." The Bay Area and Southern California, encompassing 76% of all high-growth tracts in CA, witnessed the most substantial population increase along the WUI. Notably, Riverside County stands out with 29.2% of its residents (approximately 717,000 residents) located in high-growth tracts, exemplifying a significant population surge within CA's WUI. Our analysis identifies a significant relationship between population increase in the WUI, house ownership, and affordability, where lower-priced homes come at the expense of heightened wildfire risk. However, the impact of house affordability on population growth within the WUI varies by region, playing a more prominent role in explaining population proportions in Southern California's WUI, while in the universally low-affordability Bay Area, other motivations may drive residents to live within the WUI. Given the rapid growth and insufficient consideration of wildfire risk in the WUI, policymakers must take prompt action, ensuring adequate infrastructure and resources as more individuals relocate to areas with heightened wildfire risk.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 57%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA

Laszewski,

Jia,

Viner

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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“…The Grand Prix-Old Complex occurred farther inland, had the lowest property price ( Fig 5 ), and had the highest level of neighborhood poverty based on census tract data ( Table 5 ). Inland properties in Southern California tend to be of lower value and in neighborhoods with increasing poverty, compared to more coastal neighborhoods with greater affluence [ 48 ]. Census data also show that the Grand-Prix-Old Complex was majority non-white with high asthma rates ( Table 5 ), suggesting that this fire impacted a more vulnerable community.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of increasing wildfire damage with decreasing property price in Southern California fires

Conlisk,

Butsic,

Syphard

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Across the Western United States, human development into the wildland urban interface (WUI) is contributing to increasing wildfire damage. Given that natural disasters often cause greater harm within socio-economically vulnerable groups, research is needed to explore the potential for disproportionate impacts associated with wildfire. Using Zillow Transaction and Assessment Database (ZTRAX), hereafter “Zillow”, real estate data, we explored whether lower-priced structures were more likely to be damaged during the most destructive, recent wildfires in Southern California. Within fire perimeters occurring from 2000–2019, we matched property price data to burned and unburned structures. To be included in the final dataset, fire perimeters had to surround at least 25 burned and 25 unburned structures and have been sold at most seven years before the fire; five fires fit these criteria. We found evidence to support our hypothesis that lower-priced properties were more likely to be damaged, however, the likelihood of damage and the influence of property value significantly varied across individual fire perimeters. When considering fires individually, properties within two 2003 fires–the Cedar and Grand Prix-Old Fires–had statistically significantly decreasing burn damage with increasing property value. Occurring in 2007 and later, the other three fires (Witch-Poomacha, Thomas, and Woolsey) showed no significant relationship between price and damage. Consistent with other studies, topographic position, slope, elevation, and vegetation were also significantly associated with the likelihood of a structure being damaged during the wildfire. Driving time to the nearest fire station and previously identified fire hazard were also significant. Our results suggest that further studies on the extent and reason for disproportionate impacts of wildfire are needed. In the meantime, decision makers should consider allocating wildfire risk mitigation resources–such as fire-fighting and wildfire structural preparedness resources–to more socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods.

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“…In the context of a coupled socioecological system that exhibits substantial vertical and horizontal structure, WUI dynamics in the region are strongly affected by dynamics of development interests, and potential economic benefits can have an outsized influence on decision making (Pincetl 1999). Ongoing residential development within the southern California WUI involves predominantly white and affluent people (Garrison and Huxman 2020), and these residents typically have an outsized influence on local decision making (Fulton 2001). Nevertheless, riparian and other wildland remnants embedded within cities throughout the region also include large numbers of marginalized people, including people experiencing homelessness (Meyerhoff and Kearns 2020), who have limited influence on decision making.…”

Section: Case Study: Southern Californiamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rising land prices can lead to pro‐development “shadow” governments, including commissions and boards, that have an outsized influence on land‐use zoning and general plans (Pincetl 1999). At the same time, many people move to WUIs for the recreation and aesthetic ecosystem services they provide, which may conflict with increasing development pressures (Fulton 2001; Garrison and Huxman 2020).…”

Section: Managing Wui Dynamics To Achieve Multiple Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An expanded framework for wildland–urban interfaces and their management

Jenerette

Anderson

Cadenasso

et al. 2022

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

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Wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs), the juxtaposition of highly and minimally developed lands, are an increasingly prominent feature on Earth. WUIs are hotspots of environmental and ecological change that are often priority areas for planning and management. A better understanding of WUI dynamics and their role in the coupling between cities and surrounding wildlands is needed to reduce the risk of environmental hazards, ensure the continued provisioning of ecosystem services, and conserve threatened biodiversity. To fill this need, we propose an expanded framework for WUIs that not only conceptualizes these interfaces as emergent and functional components of socioecological processes but also extends them vertically from the bedrock to the top of the vegetation and horizontally across heterogeneous landscapes. This framework encourages management that reconciles pervasive trade-offs between development and resulting multiple environmental impacts. Focusing on southern California as a case study, we use the framework to facilitate integration across disciplines and between scientists and managers.

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A tale of two suburbias: Turning up the heat in Southern California's flammable wildland-urban interface

Cited by 17 publications

References 20 publications

Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA

Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA

Evidence of increasing wildfire damage with decreasing property price in Southern California fires

An expanded framework for wildland–urban interfaces and their management

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