A temporal analysis of vessel type traffic in Istanbul Strait anchorages

Abstract

A large number of vessels berth in the anchorage areas of the Istanbul Strait on a daily basis for various reasons including bunkering and supply, port operation, lay-up, waiting for Strait passage, and bad weather conditions. These anchorage areas are zoned based on vessel type by maritime authorities where precise considerations need to be made according to the variation in vessel type. In this study, we first present a temporal analysis of vessel type traffic between 2006 and 2013 using a new historical dataset. Next, we forecast vessel type traffic for the next three years using the statistical ARIMA model. Our results suggest an overall decrease of berthing vessels, yet a pronounced increase in LPG barges. This finding is rather significant as this type of vessel is more prone to accidents and any such accident would pose a great danger to the Strait, which in turn, implies an urgent need for revising current anchorage zoning practices.

ARMA Model-Based Prediction of the Number of Vessels Navigating the Istanbul Strait Unassisted by Maritime Pilots

“…In addition, Akten (2004) stated in his study that pilotage was the service that minimized the number of shipping accidents in the Istanbul Strait. Similarly, various studies have found that pilotage services decrease the risk of accident (Ugurlu et al, 2016;Simsir et al, 2014;Arslan and Turan, 2009;Simsir and Ertugrul, 2009;Malekipirbazari et al, 2015;Birpinar et al, 2009;Köse et al, 2003). On the other hand, the VTS is the biggest decision support system available to ships passing through the strait without a pilot, as the VTS system has at its disposal techniques and skills that help prevent vessel collisions and provides both general assistance, and assistance in conditions where the crew's view is limited.…”

“…Only two studies close to our research subject deal with the Istanbul Strait. One is Bulut's study (2014) and the other Malekipirbazari et al (2015) (Bulut, 2014;Malekipirbazari et al, 2015). Bulut (2014) developed the fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method.…”