A temporally explicit species distribution model for a long distance avian migrant, the common cuckoo

Abstract

Modelling the distribution of migratory species has rarely been extended beyond breeding and wintering ranges despite many species showing much more complex movement patterns with multiple stopovers. We aimed to create a temporally explicit species distribution model describing the full annual distribution cycle, and use it to model the complex seasonal shifts in distribution of the common cuckoo Cuculus canorus, a declining long‐distance migrant. To do this we used full‐year satellite telemetry occurrence data, with their associated temporal information, to inform a temporally explicit species distribution model using MaxEnt. The resulting full‐year distribution model was highly predictive (AUC = 0.894) and appeared to have generality at the species‐level despite being informed by data from a single breeding population. Comparison of our methodology with seasonal distribution models describing the breeding, winter and migration ranges separately showed that our full‐year method provided more general and extensive predictions and performed better when tested with an independent dataset. When species distribution models based on a single season exclude environmental conditions experienced by birds in other parts of the annual cycle they risk underestimating niche breadth and neglecting the importance of stopover habitat. Conversely, models which simply average conditions across a season may miss the significance of finer scale within‐season movements and overestimate niche breadth. In contrast, our framework for a full‐year migrant distribution model successfully captures the finer‐scale changes expected in seasonal environments and can be used to inform conservation management at every stage of migration. The full‐year model framework appears to produce temporal distribution models generalised to the species‐level from occurrence data limited to few individuals of a single population and may have particular utility when aiming to describe the distribution of species with complex migration patterns from telemetry data.

Seasonal climatic niches diverge in migratory birds

“…, Williams et al . ). This implicitly assumes that species experience similar climatic conditions during their breeding and non‐breeding periods.…”

Avian SDMs: current state, challenges, and opportunities

“…A subtle case of niche switching is represented by species that change habitat and/or breeding site within the same season, mostly from one brood to the subsequent one(s) (Brambilla and Rubolini 2009). Such a switch may occur on local or regional scales (Powell and Frasch 2000, Gilroy et al 2010, Brambilla and Pedrini 2011, to large Nakazawa et al 2004 following, switching, mixed 21 Nearctic-Neotropical migrants majority: niche following Papeş et al 2011 (presumed) following Procnias tricarunculatus tropical study area Pérez-Moreno et al 2016 following, switching, mixed 13 Nearctic-Neotropical migrants intra-seasonal changes considered Williams et al 2017 switching Cuculus canorus temporally explicit SDMs, presence data from satellite tracking (e.g. continental) scales (Rohwer et al 2009).…”

“…Due to their high mobility, migratory birds can either follow their climatic niche from one season to another (so-called 'niche followers' or 'niche trackers') or they experience different climatic conditions (i.e. 'niche switchers'; Joseph 1996, Joseph and Stockwell 2000, Williams et al 2017). Yet, the differentiation between 'niche following' or 'niche switching' species is not attributed to migration per se but surely has implications for the evolution of migration (Nakazawa et al 2004).…”

Special issue: state and progress in avian species distribution models

“…niche evolution) and applied (e.g. conservation) topics (Engler et al ). The review is a comprehensive introduction to the existing literature while also evaluating current challenges and providing an outlook for further research.…”

“…In addition to this general overview, two more detailed reviews provide in depth discussion of important topics in avian SDMs. Zurell () describes new approaches for the integration of demographic processes, dispersal ability, and interspecific interactions to develop more realistic SDMs. Given that to date, most SDM applications only consider abiotic conditions this review should promote the development and use of more complex and biologically meaningful SDMs.…”