A test of the economic base hypothesis in the small forest communities of southeast Alaska.

Willingness to pay for ecosystem conservation in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest: a choice modeling study

“…These input-output models are predicated on economic base theory that presumes that regional economic activity can be separated into basic (export) and nonbasic (infilling services) industries, with basic activities determining the extent of nonbasic activities. Yet, in one of the few recent empirical attempts to validate these assumptions, Robertson (2003) found that these assumptions did not hold for the timber industry in Southeast Alaska and the Tongass. Other assumptions of IMPLAN, such as static economies and technology, limit their utility in projecting economic impacts into the future or for the duration of a forest planning cycle.…”

Southeast Alaska economics

“…Finally, the combination of regional economic growth and tight labor supplies over the analysis period indicates that workers released from basic-sector employment could likely find employment in other sectors, again decreasing the multiplier effect. Robertson (2003) stresses that regional growth is a critical element in this argument and notes, "In a shrinking economy, excess labor supply as well as excess capacity in the nonbasic sectors is likely, and the linear impact multipliers hypothesized by economic base and I-O models may be more applicable than they (linear impact multipliers) are in a growing economy." (p. 77).…”

“…This implies, for example, if 10 jobs were lost in the timber sector, an additional 7.2 jobs would be lost in nonbasic sectors. The objective of the third economics TLMP follow-on study, "A test of the economic base hypothesis in the small forest communities of Southeast Alaska" (Robertson, 2003) was to determine whether this multiplier effect existed at the smaller scale of communities.…”

“…An overview of current conditions in the Alaska forest sector and the markets in which Alaskan timber competes is presented both to analyze the validity of study findings and provide an outlook for the future. In Section 2, I discuss the objectives, methods, findings, and implications of a study analyzing employment multiplier impacts at the community scale in southeast Alaska (Robertson, 2003). As discussed above, economic, social, and biophysical systems are dynamic at all scales.…”

“…In his test of the economic base model in southeast Alaska communities, Robertson (2003) found that the presence of significant secondary impacts resulting from changes in resource-based economic activity cannot be taken as a matter of fact. In her examination of community indicators of socioeconomic well-being, Crone (in press) did not find a significant difference between small timber-dependent communities and other small communities in rural southeast Alaska.…”