A test of the news model of stock price determination in an emerging market: the case of Kuwait

Abstract

A news model of stock price determination is specified and estimated using the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) index as the price variable over the period January 1996 to December 2004. Of the five explanatory news variables, only the news terms of the money supply and government revenue turned out to be significant and correctly signed. Some weaker evidence is found for the effect of the interest rate news term. The news model shows little dynamics, implying that news is reflected rather quickly on stock prices. It is also demonstrated that stock prices react to the media news and announcements, but it is not possible to measure the unanticipated components of the announcements in the absence of a proper survey of opinions.