A theoretical interpretation of the oil prices impact on economic growth in contemporary Russia

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of global oil prices on Russia's economic growth and its growth rate in terms of output. It also reviews the mechanics of the long-term and short-term impacts on output resulting from changes in oil prices. The authors argue that the effect of oil prices on output has decreased dramatically under current economic conditions ever since the period of recovery growth in the early 2000s. The main conclusion of the paper is that, on the basis of classical models , a constant increase in oil prices transitional trends from one long-term equilibrium to another.

Modeling the Construction Sector and Oil Prices toward the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Econometric Approach

“…Several studies have focused on the relationship between the oil prices and GDP, and between construction sector and GDP, both globally and for Nigeria specifically (Tse and Ganesan 1997;Hamilton 2005;Lescaroux and Mignon 2008;Bolaji and Bolaji 2010;Olatunji 2010;Syed 2010;Rasmussen and Roitman 2011;Khan et al 2013;Shaari et al 2013;Difiglio 2014;Idrisov et al 2015). However, few empirical studies link the real aggregate GDP, the construction sector output, and the annual oil prices for Nigeria.…”

“…According to Idrisov et al (2015), understanding and identifying the basic mechanics of the impacts that oil prices have on economic development, including the interrelationship with the construction sector, are important for understanding the reasons for the current slowdown in GDP growth and for developing a plan to accelerate growth or minimize the slowdown. Based on this premise, the need to determine the nature and extent of interrelationship between oil prices, the construction sector, and the aggregate GDP in Nigeria has become apparent, which was the goal of this study.…”

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“…Во-первых, в работе допускается нали-чие долгосрочной зависимости выпуска РФ от условий торговли, в качестве прокси-переменной для которых в условиях превали-рования углеводородов в российском экспорте используются не-фтяные цены. Предполагается, что в долгосрочном периоде су-ществует положительная зависимость уровня ВВП отечественной экономики от условий торговли, которую можно объяснить через канал накопления капитала [Idrisov et al, 2015]. Улучшение условий торговли увеличивает доходность инвестирования как экспортно ориентированных секторов, так и секторов производства нетор-гуемых товаров (из-за увеличения спроса увеличиваются цены на неторгуемые товары), что приводит к увеличению объема капитала в экономике, выпуска, капиталовооруженности одного работника и его производительности.…”

Export Commodity Prices and Long-Run Growth of African Economies

“…As capital is accumulated, the economy will increase the output of its export sectors, leading to extra growth in national savings and an additional contribution to increasing capital. In sum, increasing oil prices provide an additional source of investment funding, which may have a positive impact on accumulated capital within the domestic economy and, consequently, on the physical output of products and services [8].…”

“…For instance, Idrisov, Kazakova and Polbi [8] conducted a theoretical analysis and considered the mechanisms behind the positive correlation between the output of the Russian economy and global oil prices using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). The basic result is that a constant increase in oil prices cannot influence the long-term economic growth rate and only predetermines shortterm transitional trends from a long-term equilibrium to another.…”