A Theory of Change to grow numbers of African rhino at a conservation site

Abstract

Rhino horn is highly valued and this drives the illegal hunting of rhino. As a strategy to counter rhino losses incurred through poaching, managers of African protected areas face pressure to increase the number of rhino in their populations by promoting their growth. These efforts are commonly constrained by being balanced against other protected area objectives which seek to manage toward a “natural ecological state”. This is reflected in the draft continental rhino conservation plan as well as many national‐level rhino plans in Africa, but details on how this can be achieved at a site level are limited; indeed a framework for thinking about the problem is lacking. Here we develop a Theory of Change (ToC) which guides management interventions when seeking to grow rhino numbers at a conservation site. We identify four thematic areas for intervention namely; habitat management; range availability; containment and natural attrition; and rhino population management. As many protected areas are underfunded they seek to attract funding, but many donors are uncertain as to best practice and/or are hesitant to dictate how funds should be spent. This ToC can serve as a framework to guide funding. It can also guide policy in this regard.

Carnivores and Communities: A Case Study of Human-Carnivore Conflict Mitigation in Southwestern Alberta

“…We conceptually modeled the program's main activities using a Theory of Change (ToC) model to identify the processes and anticipated results of the program (Margoluis et al, 2009;Center for Theory of Change, 2013;Woodhouse et al, 2015;Biggs et al, 2016;Allen et al, 2017;Balfour et al, 2019). Theory of Change conceptually lays out a program's logical and causal linkages that lead to a desired outcome, and has been used in conservation to assess achievement of objectives in illegal wildlife trade (Biggs et al, 2016), species-level conservation impacts (Washington et al, 2015), organizational performance (McKinnon et al, 2015), policy direction and management action (Balfour et al, 2019), and environmental education for protected areas (Zorrilla-Pujana and Rossi, 2016). Our case study provides an example of a community-based program evaluation, helps articulate what efforts are working at a local level to facilitate human-carnivore coexistence, and offers insights to help guide future program direction both locally and to other developing coexistence efforts more broadly.…”

First report of cystic echinococcosis in rhinos: A fertile infection of Echinococcus equinus in a Southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum simum) of Kruger National Park, South Africa

“…Levels of poaching have differed between sites, with KNP, with the largest rhino population also having the greatest number of rhinos poached to date, representing an 8% loss per annum for the past 5 years ( Emslie et al, 2018 ). In this scenario, interventions to counter the poaching threat, include managing for maximum productivity ( Balfour et al, 2019 ). In threatened and stressed populations, impacts of parasites, may become more serious.…”

Private rhino conservation: Diverse strategies adopted in response to the poaching crisis

“…What is apparent is that enabling private‐rhino ownership has diversified conservation options. The primary strategy adopted by state‐owned parks in response to poaching (in South Africa and continentally) has been to increase security and promote the growth of rhino populations (Balfour, Barichievy, Gordon, & Brett, 2019). The historic auctioning of rhinos from Hluhluwe‐iMfolozi Park, and more recent translocation of rhinos to private land outside poaching hotspots, represents an additional strategy to spread risk across many, smaller reserves that are potentially easier to secure (Linklater & Shrader, 2017).…”