A theory of design reliability using probability and fuzzy sets

Abstract

All process designs are subject to uncertainties which make it impossible to state with complete certainty that a design will work. This study presents a measure of design confidence which considers the nature of the uncertainty and the operability of the process as a whole. This measure, called design reliability, quantifies the likelihood that a design will work. Detailed analyses are presented for three special cases: designs subject to random uncertainties, designs subject to fuzzy uncertainties, and designs subject to both random and fuzzy uncertainties. Practical procedures for estimating design reliability in these special cases are also presented.

Heat Exchanger Network Optimization and Controllability Using Design Reliability Theory

“…Hence, the inequality constraints must be satisfied for feasible operating conditions. The following is a modification of the algorithm proposed by Kubic and Stein [1] for the estimation of the design unreliability of HENs:…”

“…This paper shows a methodology to optimize a HEN using "Fuzzy Design Reliability Theory" (e.g. Kubic and Stein, [1]). The main advantage in using this methodology is that it incorporates the experience of the design engineer or operations personnel, in order to determine the expected variations in the operating conditions that potentially could happen.…”

“…Following the normal HEN synthesis using the usual pinch analysis design procedures, this proposed approach uses design reliability theory (e.g. Kubic and Stein, [1]) coupled with fuzzy set theory principles (e.g. Ross et al, [8]).…”

Supporting chemical process design under uncertainty

“…Similarly, Straub and Grossmann (1990) also used the notion of stochastic flexibility citing earlier work by Pistikopoulos and Mazzuchi. Both, Grossman and Pistikopoulos refer to earlier work by Kubic and Stein (1988), who introduced yet another term, design reliability. They actually cite the paper by Freeman and Gaddy, but also do not mention the notion of dependability.…”

Evaluation of design flexibility in distillation columns using rigorous models

“…(1985) studied the effect of overdesign in die operability of distillation columns when changes in the feed composition are expected. Kubic and Stein (1988) considered random and fuzzy uncertainties in the design of distillation columns.…”