A time-dependent seismic hazard model following the Kaikōura M7.8 earthquake

Gerstenberger, Matthew C.; Rhoades, David A.; Litchfield, Nicola J.; Abbott, Elizabeth; Goded, Tatiana; Christophersen, Annemarie; Dissen, R. J. Van; Bannister, Stephen; Barrell, David; Bruce, Zane; Fry, Bill; Hamling, I. J.; Holden, Caroline; Horspool, Nick; Kaiser, Anna; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Langridge, Robert; Little, Timothy A.; Luković, Biljana; McBride, Sara K.; McVerry, Graeme H.; Nicol, Andy; Perrin, N. D.; Pettinga, Jarg R.; Stirling, Mark; Houtte, Chris Van; Wallace, L. M.

doi:10.1080/00288306.2022.2158881

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…The scenarios used average slip that follows the magnitude‐area scaling relationship from Stirling et al. (2021) with a C value of 4.0 (Gerstenberger et al., 2022). Interface slip tapers to zero over 12 km to the patch edge (approximately matching upper plate fault inversion taper).…”

Section: Elastic Dislocation Modeling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Upper Plate Faults May Contribute to the Paleoseismic Subsidence Record Along the Central Hikurangi Subduction Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand

Delano,

Howell,

Clark

et al. 2023

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Earthquake‐driven subsidence can cause cascading hazards at the coast by exacerbating relative sea level rise, storm surges, tsunami, and tidal flooding. At Ahuriri Lagoon near Napier, Aotearoa New Zealand, paleoseismic uplift and subsidence are typically attributed to upper plate faults and subduction interface earthquakes, respectively. We test this assumption with elastic dislocation models of upper plate and subduction interface earthquakes informed by historical events, seismic surveys, and modern interface coupling data. We compared our surface deformation results to paleoseismic records preserved at Ahuriri Lagoon, which includes eight rapid subsidence (c. 0.5–1.2 m) and two rapid uplift events over the last c. 7 kyr. Our models demonstrate that offshore upper plate faults could cause subsidence of c. 0.5–1 m at Ahuriri Lagoon at recurrence intervals of c. 2 kyr. A range of subduction interface earthquakes can also produce subsidence at Ahuriri Lagoon, and may explain larger (>1 m) subsidence, but must rupture the currently creeping (i.e., aseismic) portions of the interface. We demonstrate that both upper plate fault and subduction interface earthquakes may have contributed to the Ahuriri Lagoon records, and that interface coupling may be more spatially or temporally heterogeneous than modern geodetic data suggest. Models of sea‐level rise and earthquake multi‐hazards that do not include the effects of upper plate faulting may mischaracterize risk at the coast.

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Section: Elastic Dislocation Modeling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Upper Plate Faults May Contribute to the Paleoseismic Subsidence Record Along the Central Hikurangi Subduction Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand

Delano,

Howell,

Clark

et al. 2023

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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“…Data that captured the large earthquakes in the Christchurch region in 2010 and 2011 were removed from the InSAR time series. As outlined in Section 1.2 above, the inter‐seismic rate is considered most appropriate for the extrapolation of VLM used in the RSL projections in the near‐term (planning timescales of less than 50 years) Notwithstanding this, seismic hazard risk (Gerstenberger et al., 2023a, 2023b; Stirling et al., 2012) and the potential for rapid subsidence and/or uplift, while difficult to predict, should always be considered. For example, a major earthquake on the ∼600 km long Alpine Fault is likely (75% probability) to occur in the next 50 years (Howarth et al., 2021), but historical fault rupture data suggest little co‐seismic VLM will occur in the South Island.…”

Section: Regional Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, we acknowledge that further work is needed to develop an understanding of the influence of earthquake‐cycle related deformation on forecasts of VLM within tectonically active regions around the world. We are currently undertaking this work and will use probabilistic approaches including seismic hazard models and forecasts (Gerstenberger et al., 2023a, 2023b), as well as processed based earthquake simulations (e.g., Shaw et al., 2022), to estimate the non‐linear components of VLM. There is also a need to better assess and quantify uncertainties due to the range of processes that cause short‐term temporal variations in VLM at high spatial resolution (as discussed above).…”

Section: Outlook and Future Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These long‐term interseismic tectonic VLMs may continue with the same sign (up or down) for decades to centuries, and in a few cases, at rates that exceed the GMSL rise projected for the coming decades (IPCC AR6). A previous assessment of VLM around the New Zealand coastline (Beavan & Litchfield, 2012) noted the probability that a large‐magnitude earthquake will cause significant vertical displacement at any given point along the coastline over the next 50–100 years, is relatively low due to long recurrence intervals of most of the faults (Gerstenberger et al., 2023a, 2023b; Litchfield et al., 2014; Stirling et al., 2012). Therefore, in many cases the interseismic rate that drives local VLM on decadal time scales will be a significant contributor to future relative sea‐level change around New Zealand and should be accounted for in sea‐level projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the probability of an earthquake generated VLM may eventually be fully integrated into sea‐level projections in future studies (See Section 5. Outlook and Future Prospects), similar to the way that probabilistic seismic hazard models are implemented (Gerstenberger et al., 2020, 2023a, 2023b), such work is beyond the scope of this study. Likewise, while we know co‐ and post‐seismic deformation is influencing the pattern of VLM in a few regions (e.g., Fiordland, Christchurch, and Kaikōura) our existing knowledge of the earthquake deformation cycle is insufficient to model the ongoing non‐linear response (see also Section S1.3 in Supporting Information S1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Significance of Interseismic Vertical Land Movement at Convergent Plate Boundaries in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections for AR6 Scenarios: The New Zealand Case

Naish,

Levy,

Hamling

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

Self Cite

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Anticipating and managing the impacts of sea‐level rise for nations astride active tectonic margins requires understanding of rates of sea surface elevation change in relation to coastal land elevation. Vertical land motion (VLM) can either exacerbate or reduce sea‐level changes with impacts varying significantly along a coastline. Determining rate, pattern, and variability of VLM near coasts leads to a direct improvement of location‐specific relative sea level (RSL) estimates for coastal hazard risk assessment. Here, we utilize vertical velocity field from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data, calibrated with campaign and continuous Global Navigation Satellite System data, to determine the VLM for the entire coastline of New Zealand. Guided by available knowledge of the seismic cycle, the VLM data infer secular, interseismic rates of land surface deformation. Using the Framework for Assessing Changes to Sea‐level (FACTS), we build probabilistic RSL projections using the same emissions scenarios employed in IPCC Assessment Report 6 and local VLM data at 8,179 sites, thereby enhancing spatial coverage that was previously limited to four tide gauges. We present ensembles of probability distributions of RSL for each scenario to 2150, and for low confidence sea‐level processes to 2300. Where land subsidence is occurring at rates >2 mm/y VLM makes a significant contribution to RSL projections for all scenarios out to 2150. Our approach can be applied to similar locations across the world and has significant implications for adaptation planning, as timing of threshold exceedance for coastal inundation can be brought forward (or delayed) by decades.

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Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions

Mizrahi,

Dallo,

van der Elst

et al. 2024

Reviews of Geophysics

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While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision‐making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near‐real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF‐related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non‐representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user‐dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

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A time-dependent seismic hazard model following the Kaikōura M7.8 earthquake

Cited by 10 publications

References 97 publications

Upper Plate Faults May Contribute to the Paleoseismic Subsidence Record Along the Central Hikurangi Subduction Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand

Upper Plate Faults May Contribute to the Paleoseismic Subsidence Record Along the Central Hikurangi Subduction Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand

The Significance of Interseismic Vertical Land Movement at Convergent Plate Boundaries in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections for AR6 Scenarios: The New Zealand Case

Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions

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