A Typology and Assessment of Multi-sector Regional Economic Impact Models

Abstract

Loveridge S. (2004) A typology and assessment of multi-sector regional economic impact models, Reg. Studies38, 305-317. This paper provides a summary and critical review of the types of multi-sector models with inter-sectoral linkages commonly used to predict the total impact of an event (plant opening, closing or policy change) on the regional economy. The following model types are included: economic base; input-output; social accounting matrix; integrated econometric/input-output; and computable general equilibrium models. Appropriate uses of the various modelling approaches are presented along with some general operating principles and ethical considerations. The paper concludes with directions for future research. Loveridge S. (2004) Une typologie et un bilan des modeles des impacts economiques regionaux multi-sectoriels, Reg. Studies38, 305-317. Cet article cherche a faire le resume et la critique des typologies de modeles multi-sectoriels qui ont des liens intersectoriels et dont on se sert frequemment afin de predire l'impact global sur l'economie regionale d'un effet ponctuel (a savoir l'ouverture d'un etablissement, la fermeture, le changement de politique). On inclut les typologies de modeles qui suivent: base economique, echanges interindustriels, matrice de comptabilite nationale, econometrie/echanges interindustriels integres, et equilibre general sur ordinateur. On presente des facons d'employer les divers modeles qui conviennent, conjointement avec des principes generaux et des considerations ethiques. Pour conclure, l'article propose la voie a suivre pour ce qui est de la recherche future. Loveridge S. (2004) Eine Typologie und Bewertung vielfach gefacherter regionalwirtschaftlicher Auswirkungsmodelle, Reg. Studies38, 305-317. Dieser Aufsatz bringt eine Zusammenfassung und kritische Besprechung der Typen mehrfach gefacherter Modelle mit intersektorellen Verknupfungen, die weithin dazu benutzt werden, die Gesamtauswirkung eines Ereignisses, (sei es Eroffnung, Schliessung oder Betriebsumstellung) auf die regionale Wirtschaft vorherzusagen. Die folgenden Modelltypen werden berucksichtigt: wirtschaftliche Grundlage, Aufwand/Ertrag, Sozialbedeutungsmatrix, integrierte okonometrische Aufwand/ Ertrags- und berechenbare allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle. Es werden geeignete Anwendungen der verschiedenartigen Modellansatze sowie allgemeine Arbeitsprinzipien und ethische Erwagungen vorgelegt. Der Aufsatz schliesst mit Hinweisen auf weitere Forschungsaufgaben. Loveridge S. (2004) Una tipologia y evaluacion de modelos multi-sectoriales que analizan el impacto economico regional, Reg. Studies38, 305-317. Este articulo ofrece un resumen y un examen critico de los tipos de modelos multi-sectoriales con enlaces inter-sectoriales comunmente utilizados para predecir el impacto total de un acontecimiento (apertura de una planta, cierre, o cambio de politica) en la economia regional. Se incluyen los siguientes tipos de modelos: base economica, input- ouput, matriz de contabilidad social, econometrico/input-output inte...

Ex post analysis of economic impacts from wind power development in U.S. counties

“…The high level of resulting disaggregation available in some off-the-shelf modeling packages can create a false sense of precision, with the model reflecting inter-industrial linkages for sectors that may not exist or that exist at a different level or in different form than predicted by national industrial composition data (Loveridge, 2004). Such models are thus better at predicting impacts in hypothetical communities that have the characteristics reflected in the model rather than predicting impacts in actual communities, unless considerable effort is made to calibrate the model to local conditions.…”

“…Additionally, project-level case studies might further be questioned because they are often based on self-reported direct employment and income, which may differ from the actual direct employment and income resulting from project operations, particularly when there is an incentive to boost the favorable impression of a project (e.g., Loveridge, 2004). Moreover, by focusing on direct impacts (and often ignoring indirect and induced effects), case studies of actual projects may understate the economic development impacts of wind development.…”

“…A third limitation of traditional input-output models is that they account only for inter-industry linkages, but do not account for the interactions between firms and other important actors in the economy, such as households and governments (Loveridge, 2004). For example, profits earned by local owners of wind projects, lease payments by absenteeowners, and property tax payments are important contributors to the local economic impacts of wind power development, but these payments would not be incorporated into a traditional input-output model.…”

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“…A second mechanism, drawing on "staples and vent-for-surplus models" (Findlay and Lundahl, 1994), operates through the backward and forward inter-sectoral linkages generated by the economic-base activities when there are idle resources in the region. Multi-sector and multiregional growth models have been based on these two mechanisms of economic base led models (Loveridge, 2004;Nijkamp, Rietveld and Snickars, 1987).…”

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