A typology of marine and estuarine hazards and risks as vectors of change: A review for vulnerable coasts and their management

Abstract

This paper illustrates a typology of 14 natural and anthropogenic hazards, the evidence for their causes and consequences for society and their role as vectors of change in estuaries, vulnerable coasts and marine areas. It uses hazard as the potential that there will be damage to the natural or human system and so is the product of an event which could occur and the probability of it occurring whereas the degree of risk then relates to the amount of assets, natural or societal, which may be affected. We give long and short-term and large and small-scale perspectives showing that the hazards leading to disasters for society will include flooding, erosion and tsunamis. Global examples include the effects of wetland loss and the exacerbation of problems by building on vulnerable coasts. Hence we emphasise the importance of considering hazard and risk on such coasts and consider the tools for assessing and managing the impacts of risk and hazard. These allow policy-makers to determine the consequences for natural and human systems. We separate locally-derived problems from large-scale effects (e.g. climate change, sea level rise and isostatic rebound); we emphasise that the latter unmanaged exogenic pressures require a response to the consequences rather than the causes whereas within a management area there are endogenic managed pressures in which we address both to causes and consequences. The problems are put into context by assessing hazards and the conflicts between different uses and users and hence the management responses needed. We emphasise that integrated and sustainable management of the hazards and risk requires 10-tenets to be fulfilled.

Climate change impacts on rural poverty in low-elevation coastal zones

“…Myanmar experienced an 8.4% decline in its mangroves, Cambodia 4.5%, India 3.3%, and Indonesia 3.1%. The increased exposure to flooding is also likely to affect coastal wetlands such as mangroves, as will the disruptions in precipitation, temperature and hydrology accompanying climate change (Erwin, 2009;Doney et al, 2012;Webb et al, 2013;Elliott et al, 2014;IPCC Working Group II, 2014;Spalding et al, 2014).…”

“…As these ecosystems disappear or are degraded, there will be less protection against short-lived natural disasters with immediate and often extreme impacts, such as flooding and storm surge, as well as long-term climatic changes with more gradual impacts, such as sea-level rise, saline intrusion and erosion Gedan et al, 2011;Temmerman et al, 2013;Barbier, 2014;IPCC Working Group II, 2014;Spalding et al, 2014). In addition, the changes in precipitation, temperature and hydrology accompanying climate change are likely to threaten remaining coastal and near-shore ecosystems (Erwin, 2009;Dasgupta et al, 2011;Doney et al, 2012;Webb et al, 2013;Elliott et al, 2014;IPCC Working Group II, 2014;Spalding et al, 2014).…”

Collaborative Landscape Planning: Co-Design of Ecosystem-Based Land Management Scenarios

“…Human induced changes in land management increased the vulnerability of the North Sea coastal communities, leading to reduced sediment flows and natural defense structures by building dikes, increased flood risks by building settlements in areas lying under sea level, increased surface water run-off with flash floods on impervious surfaces, or continuous land subsidence by drainage activities [5]. Additionally, climate change and sea level rise may impact land use in the future [6].…”

Managing the Marine Environment, Conceptual Models and Assessment Considerations for the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive

“…Robinson et al (2008) listed further Pressures, which were later updated by White et al (2013). Except for Pressures from climate change, Pressures predominantly relate to anthropogenic Activity, also referred to as endogenic managed Pressures (Atkins et al, 2011;Elliott, 2011;Elliott et al, 2014), i.e., emanating from within the system to be managed. Exogenic unmanaged Pressures, in contrast, are from outside of the system and mostly relate to climate change, isostatic/eustatic change, or seismic activity.…”