A valuation model for NFL and NHL draft positions

Hurley, W. J.; Павлов, А.И.; Andrews, William S.

doi:10.1057/jors.2011.93

Cited by 6 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…One purpose of the reverse-order draft is to encourage competitive balance [5–8]. In leagues that allow selections and players to be traded between clubs prior to the draft, having a “fair value” [9] for a particular draft selection (or selections) relative to others can facilitate trade negotiations [10, 11, 12]. Many studies have developed methods to value player performance, and others have also related this to the position players are drafted [1, 12–17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Functions defining value by draft selection number, here referred to as Draft Value Indices (DVI) but also known as pick value charts or value functions, have been estimated using various metrics across a number of sports (Fig 1) [9, 11, 12, 18]. The Australian Football League (AFL) recently introduced a DVI to assist clubs value their Academy and Father-Son players in the draft.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This includes determining players to retain, de-list, trade and recruit through the draft. There is considerable risk that players drafted or traded-in will not meet expectations, and clubs minimise this risk through extensive background research, including tests of character, skill, competitiveness, leadership and injury history [5, 11]. However, there remains a substantial likelihood that a player will not fulfil their own expectations or those of their club.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The decision to trade players or draft selections (or a combination thereof) to another club often leads to protracted negotiations where each club attempts to maximise their potential gains (or perhaps minimise their losses). Such trade negotiations should, ideally, lead to a fair exchange (as implied in the examples provided within [9]), but will be constrained by the players and selections available to be traded [11]. In such circumstances, measures of draft selection value or player value can be used to assist negotiations [1, 11, 12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such trade negotiations should, ideally, lead to a fair exchange (as implied in the examples provided within [9]), but will be constrained by the players and selections available to be traded [11]. In such circumstances, measures of draft selection value or player value can be used to assist negotiations [1, 11, 12]. Draft Value Indices have been used to help balance trades in the NFL and more recently in the AFL [9, 12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Risk equivalence as an alternative to balancing mean value when trading draft selections and players in major sporting leagues

Tuck

Richards

2019

PLoS ONE

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In sports leagues that use an annual draft to assign eligible players to clubs, having a value associated with a draft selection can allow clubs to anticipate future growth of players and, if a trading period exists, assist negotiations when exchanging draft selections and players. Typically, mean draft values often decline in either an exponential or geometric manner with increasing draft selection number. Aggregate mean values have been used to compare trade packages. However, clubs may also want to ensure that a trade does not increase the probability of obtaining poor players in the draft. This paper therefore considers equivalence of risk as an alternative trading strategy for club list managers. Here, risk is defined as the probability of the aggregate value of the received draft selections being below a minimum acceptable level. For risk equivalence, a premium over and above mean market value may need to be provided when trading to secure higher draft selections.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Risk equivalence as an alternative to balancing mean value when trading draft selections and players in major sporting leagues

Tuck

Richards

2019

PLoS ONE

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An Experimental Method in Juxtaposing Draft Picks and Active Players

Chandrakumaran

2021

J of App Econs and Policy

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Trading picks are a common transaction that is observed in sporting leagues that conduct player drafts. However, with its evolution, current iterations allow for the trading of picks and players, which in turn raises questions about valuing such trades. This study proposes a pick valuation system using survival analysis techniques, which was further extended to value players who were already enlisted. The model proved to be viable, allowing to evaluate trades involving both picks and players.

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To draft or not to draft? A systematic review of North American sports’ entry draft

Johnston

Farah

Ghuman

et al. 2021

Scandinavian Med Sci Sports

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In theory, professional sport "entry drafts" are designed to promote parity by granting poorly performing teams with early selections and winning teams with later selections. While this process has intentions to "level the playing field", mixed findings exist in the literature. The aim of this review is to identify and synthesize the literature examining the efficacy of the draft for professional, North American sport leagues. A systematic review of four databases was performed according to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) guidelines. Full-text articles containing relevant data on the draft system for the four major professional North American sports were identified. Further restrictions were made to include articles focusing on a specific outcome regarding future success (i.e., whether the draft related to a measure of future performance). The search returned 10 962 records and after screening, 18 articles were synthesized. Of the articles examined, the measures of future success with relation to draft order were (a) career length and/or number of games played at the majors (n = 8), (b) future performance statistics at the professional level (n = 5), (c) change in winning percentage and/or number of wins produced (n = 3), (d) financial compensation (n = 1), and (e) a combination of measures (a) to (d), (n = 1). Most commonly, the first/early rounds most accurately predicted future measures of success (ie, number of games played, signing bonuses, and playing statistics) across sports. The middle and late rounds were less accurate, with the degree of accuracy increasing slightly in the last rounds. This review highlights several opportunities to better understand the draft process (e.g., potential improvements in middle round picks) and emphasizes the need for more research on analyzing and scrutinizing the draft.

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A valuation model for NFL and NHL draft positions

Cited by 6 publications

References 2 publications

Risk equivalence as an alternative to balancing mean value when trading draft selections and players in major sporting leagues

Risk equivalence as an alternative to balancing mean value when trading draft selections and players in major sporting leagues

An Experimental Method in Juxtaposing Draft Picks and Active Players

To draft or not to draft? A systematic review of North American sports’ entry draft

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