A Warning From the Russian–ukrainian War: Avoiding a Future That Rhymes With the Past

Mariotti, Sergio

doi:10.15407/eip2022.03.007

Ekon. prognozuvannâ

2022

DOI: 10.15407/eip2022.03.007

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A Warning From the Russian–ukrainian War: Avoiding a Future That Rhymes With the Past

Sergio Mariotti¹

Abstract: The Russian–Ukrainian war is a dramatic effect of the growing imbalances and instability of the global economic and political order, together with other effects that this contribution analyzes. This paper in fact offers empirical evidence of a rampant “global protectionism”, the slowdown of the world’s economy in the long term, and the changing structure of global value chains. The paper also seeks to link these manifestations together in a historical perspective, considering the results of previous studies th… Show more

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Cited by 6 publications

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War in Ukraine as a bifurcation point in global development: rhyming with the past versus creating the future

Sidenko

2023

Economy and forecasting

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In this article, prepared as part of the creative discussion on the problems raised in Sergio Mariotti's paper regarding various global economic aspects related to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the author argues that, despite the obvious tendencies towards greater global protectionism, one should not excessively expand the meaning of the term "protectionism" thus concealing the recent trends towards direct government interventionism in the functioning of international markets, which makes the very concept of "free market" increasingly conditional. Turning to the repeatability in the present of certain trends of the past (called “rhyming”), which is another important message in S. Mariotti's article, the author emphasizes the need to consider this phenomenon not as a regrettable and undesirable coincidence, but as a natural consequence of the principle of cyclicality in economic development and the wave-like nature of long-term development trends. The article proves that one can not overcome undesirable and dangerous global trends just by calling for peace, cooperation and better global coordination based on the established principles of institutionalised world order. That purpose requires a truly global thinking in all without exception centers that shape global development policy, and true cooperation in defining the parameters of the future and in solving global problems of humanity. And this is only possible via the formation of a qualitatively new model of globalization, where economic freedom would become the freedom of free development for all.

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War in Ukraine as a bifurcation point in global development: rhyming with the past versus creating the future

Sidenko

2023

Economy and forecasting

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Dependences and ways to eliminate them: a past that resonates with the present

Krekhivskyi

2023

Economy and forecasting

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The invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine has showed, on the one hand, the high cohesion and patriotism of Ukrainian society and their perception of independence as a higher value; on the other hand - the inability to preserve it with the resources of the national economy alone, and therefore - a high external dependence on the decisions of global leaders on the provision of aid and the use of the industrial base of the West to ensure the defense and security of Ukraine. Updated by S. Mariotti, the issue of "global protectionism" needs to be considered via the prism of the contextual economic conditions for the implementation of such a policy (wars, post-war recovery, crises). The purpose of the article is to investigate, based on the experience of the pioneer of industrial revolution and the adept of free market - Great Britain, the historical facts regarding the elites’ reaction to new challenges and threats of the beginning of the 20th century, and policy measures to encourage and protect national producers and their consequences, as well as to visualize various recent examples of protectionism, and draw conclusions for Ukraine. Historical parallels between the situation at the beginning of the 20th century and the events of recent years give grounds for assuming that the answer to the question "How to speed up the recovery of Ukraine's economy during the period of severe war test?" should not be sought in modern policy measures of developed countries (where a powerful industrial potential has been created by the joint efforts of government and business over many years and the governments’ activities are focused on managing the crises to preserve and strengthen this potential), but rather in retrospective mechanisms that ensured the expansion of the existing and creation of new industries to strengthen the economic efficiency and national security. The author shows that the state financial incentives and protectionist tariffs, introduced in Great Britain in the national interest in response to new challenges and threats, were effective for more than 40 years, which helped this country develop key industries, reduce dependence on imported strategic goods, and prepare for new challenges. It is substantiated that the stimulating and protective mechanisms of India's policy, which have been launched recently to reduce dependence on the supply of strategic goods from China, are a reflection of the measures implemented by Great Britain at the beginning of the 20th century to reduce dependence on supplies of important goods from Germany. Similar mechanisms are being introduced by the United States in accordance with the interests of national security. The author demonstrates that Ukraine has lower protective tariffs not only compared to Asian countries that are developing and protecting their own industry, but also to the EU. It is substantiated that when forming a strategy for economic independence and post-war recovery, Ukraine should take into account both the historical experience of Great Britain and the modern practices of introducing policy mechanisms to encourage and protect own industries for defense and security purposes.

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Протекціонізм Як Детермінанта Розвитку Автомобілебудування Великої Британії

КРЕХІВСЬКИЙ

2024

ЕУ

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The tariff policy on imports, which was introduced in Great Britain at the beginning of the World War I and was in force for about 60 years, is considered. Based on historical facts and figures, it is substantiated on the example of the automotive industry that the so-called McKenna duties in the long term had an impact on the growth of production, employment, and budget revenues; led to a decrease in prices on the domestic market, a reduction in imports and an increase in exports, promoted foreign investments, the transfer of advanced technologies, and the wider engagement of local potential in business processes. It is demonstrated that the protective duties currently launched by the Indian government to regulate the import of goods, the production of which has been defined by the government as a priority (in particular, electric cars production is concerned), are a reflection of the measures implemented by Great Britain at the beginning of the 20th century. It is emphasized that protective tariffs for these goods in Ukraine are significantly lower. It is shown that the USA also uses import duties for national security purposes. Taking into account the provisions of the GATT/WTO and the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement, as well as modern examples of their application, it is quite obvious that Ukraine, under the current conditions of external and internal challenges and institutional restrictions, can take advantage of the protectionist policy for the development of industry in the post-war recovery period, based on its right to determine "the most important exceptions for security reasons" in order to ensure the socio-economic and financial stability of the country and the welfare of the nation. In view of this, it is necessary to rethink the current Ukraine’s policy on automobile manufacturing, in particular as regards the foreign trade regulation, and to create a new policy based on effective protectionism theory and effective protection rate calculations, assessment of the current state and prospects of enterprises, the results of a professional discussion on the priorities of the industry: whether it should remain at semi knocked-down kit stage or aim for full-cycle production with a high level of localization.

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A Warning From the Russian–ukrainian War: Avoiding a Future That Rhymes With the Past

Cited by 6 publications

References 43 publications

War in Ukraine as a bifurcation point in global development: rhyming with the past versus creating the future

War in Ukraine as a bifurcation point in global development: rhyming with the past versus creating the future

Dependences and ways to eliminate them: a past that resonates with the present

Протекціонізм Як Детермінанта Розвитку Автомобілебудування Великої Британії

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