A weak upward elevational shift in the distributions of breeding birds in the Italian Alps

Popy, Simon; Bordignon, Lucio; Prodon, Roger

doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02197.x

Cited by 88 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 62 publications

(110 reference statements)

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“…160 m/°C; Hughes 2000). Here, our modelling results coincide with the empirical study of Popy et al (2010) who detected a shift in elevation of bird species in the Italian Alps of 29.4 m/C°. The results are also backed by findings of Randin et al (2009) as well as Luoto and Heikkinen (2008) who stated that environmental heterogeneity may significantly buffer the impact of climate change on species distribution.…”

Section: Response To Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 92%

“…1). This is especially the case if the species under study relies on patchily distributed habitat and inhabits steep terrain as do Rock Ptarmigan (Rahbek 2005;Popy et al 2010). It clearly demonstrates how invaluable small-scale atlas data can be to accurately model the species distribution and its range shifts.…”

Section: Rock Ptarmigan's Habitat Requirements: a Matter Of Scalementioning

confidence: 94%

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Habitat at the mountain tops: how long can Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) survive rapid climate change in the Swiss Alps? A multi-scale approach

et al. 2012

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Ongoing monitoring in the Swiss Alps has shown that Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) has suffered a significant population decrease over the last decade and climate change has been proposed as a potential cause. In this study, we investigate the response of this high alpine grouse species to rapid climate change. We address a problem often neglected in macro-ecological studies on species distribution: scale-dependency of distribution models. The models are based on empirical field data and on environmental databases for large-scale models. The implementation of several statistical modelling approaches, external validation strategies and the implementation of a recent study on regional climate change in Switzerland ensure robust predictions of future range shifts. Our results demonstrate that, on the territory level, variables depicting vegetation, heterogeneity of local topography and habitat structure have greatest explanatory power. In contrast at the meso-scale and macro-scale (with grain sizes of 1 and 100 km 2 , respectively), bioclimatic and land cover-related variables play a prominent role. The models predict that, based on increasing temperatures during the breeding season, potential habitat will decrease by up to two-thirds until the year 2070. At the same time, a shift of potential habitat towards the mountain tops is predicted. The multiscale approach highlights the true extent of potential habitat for this species with its patchy distribution in steep terrain. The small-scale analysis pinpoints the key habitat areas within the extensive areas of suitable habitat predicted by models on large grain sizes and in this way reveals sub-grid variability. Our results can facilitate the adaptation of species conservation strategies to a quickly changing environment. ZusammenfassungHabitat auf den Gipfeln der Berge: Wie lange kann das Alpenschneehuhn (Lagopus muta helvetica) raschen Klimawandel in den Schweizer Alpen ü berleben? Ein mehrskaliger Ansatz.Fortlaufendes Monitoring hat gezeigt, dass innerhalb des letzten Jahrzehnts die Population des Alpenschneehuhns (Lagopus muta helvetica) in den Schweizer Alpen stark abgenommen hat. Als mögliche Ursache kommt der Klimawandel in Betracht. In dieser Studie untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen raschen Klimawandels auf dieses hochalpine Raufußhuhn. Dabei setzten wir uns mit einem Aspekt auseinander, der in vielen makroökologischen Studien oft vernachlässigt wird: die Skalenabhängigkeit von Habitatmodellen. Die Modelle basieren auf empirischen Felddaten und auf Umweltdatenbanken für die Communicated by T. Gottschalk.

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Section: Response To Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Rock Ptarmigan's Habitat Requirements: a Matter Of Scalementioning

confidence: 94%

Habitat at the mountain tops: how long can Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) survive rapid climate change in the Swiss Alps? A multi-scale approach

et al. 2012

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“…Many studies have already provided substantial evidence of the effect of climate change on geographic range, migration, breeding phenology and demographic factors such as breeding performance and survival (Crick 2004;PearceHiggins and Green 2014). Specifically, there is now compelling evidence that the distribution range of some bird species has shifted northward in the northern hemisphere (Thomas and Lennon 1999;Jiguet et al 2006) or to higher altitudes (Shoo et al 2006;Pounds et al 1999), although the results concerning elevational shifts of upland and alpine birds appear somewhat variable (Archaux 2004;Popy et al 2010;Maggini et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

No short-term effects of climate change on the breeding of Rock Ptarmigan in the French Alps and Pyrenees

Novoa

Astruc

Desmet³

et al. 2016

J Ornithol

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In the last decades, the effects of climate warming have been particularly marked in high mountain areas. High-altitude species adapted to cold temperatures are consensually held to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Among these species at risk, alpine birds like the Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) are expected to exhibit a strong negative response, particularly at the southern margins of their ranges in the northern hemisphere. In this study, conducted from 1998 to 2011, we investigated whether variations in the local climate affected the breeding biology of Rock Ptarmigan in the French Alps and Pyrenees. The median hatching date did not significantly advance in either massif, suggesting that Rock Ptarmigan did not breed earlier during this period. The date of snowmelt and spring temperatures influenced the onset of breeding but not consistently in both sites. In the Alps, the median hatching date was significantly correlated with the date of snowmelt, but this correlation was less clear in the Pyrenees. Unlike woodland grouse which inhabit lower elevations, the onset of breeding in Rock Ptarmigan may be related to both date of snowmelt and spring temperatures. Reproductive success varied greatly over the years and among sites. On average, the number of young per adult in the Pyrenean population was greater than that recorded in the two populations in the Alps. A significant positive trend of reproductive success over the period of 2000-2009 was detected in the Pyrenees but not in the Alps. The model that best explained annual variation in reproductive success included the additive effects of site, date of total snowmelt and rainfall after hatching. The estimates from this model showed that for all sites, reproductive success was much lower when snowmelt was late, and rainfall after hatching was high. We did not detect any altitudinal changes in locations of either breeding females or nests, suggesting that the breeding habitat of the species has not shifted upward from 1998 to 2011. To conclude, although the Rock Ptarmigan is generally considered a potential sentinel species for indicating temperature-induced changes in alpine avifauna, our study did not show a short-term effect of climate change on the breeding biology of the southern populations of this species.

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“…The shift pattern for these species is of type F according to our catalogue, i.e., mainly a retraction from low elevations. In their assessment in an alpine valley in Italy, Popy et al (2009) found that the mean elevations increased for the majority of species over the considered period of 11 years, but that the average change was not significantly different from zero. However, a significant upward shift of 29 m of the bird zonation could be identified.…”

Section: Shifts In the Elevational Distribution Of Breeding Birds In mentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

Maggini¹,

Lehmann²,

Kéry³

et al. 2011

Ecological Modelling

148

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a b s t r a c tClimate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either "move, adapt or die". In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. Patterns are defined in terms of changes occurring at the leading, trailing or both edges of the distribution: (a) leading edge expansion, (b) trailing edge retraction, (c) range expansion, (d) optimum shift, (e) expansion, (f) retraction, and (g) shift. The methodology is based on the modelling of species distributions along a gradient using generalized additive models (GAMs). Separate models are calibrated for two distinct periods of assessment and response curves are compared over five reference points. Changes occurred at these points are formalized into a code that ultimately designates the corresponding change pattern. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey. The elevational distributions of 95 bird species were modelled for the periods 1999-2002 and 2004-2007 and significant upward shifts (all patterns confounded) were identified for 35% of the species. Over the same period, an increase in mean temperature was registered for Switzerland. In consideration of the short period covered by the case study, assessed change patterns are considered to correspond to intermediate patterns in an ongoing shifting process. However, similar patterns can be determined by habitat barriers, land use/land cover changes, competition with concurrent or invasive species or different warming rates at different elevations.

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A weak upward elevational shift in the distributions of breeding birds in the Italian Alps

Cited by 88 publications

References 62 publications

Habitat at the mountain tops: how long can Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) survive rapid climate change in the Swiss Alps? A multi-scale approach

Habitat at the mountain tops: how long can Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) survive rapid climate change in the Swiss Alps? A multi-scale approach

No short-term effects of climate change on the breeding of Rock Ptarmigan in the French Alps and Pyrenees

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

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