A web-based prediction model for overall survival of elderly patients with early renal cell carcinoma: a population-based study

Abstract

Background The number of elderly patients with early renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is on the rise. However, there is still a lack of accurate prediction models for the prognosis of early RCC in elderly patients. It is necessary to establish a new nomogram to predict the prognosis of elderly patients with early RCC. Methods The data of patients aged above 65 years old with TNM stage I and II RCC were downloaded from the SEER database between 2010 and 2018. The patients from 2010 to 2017 were randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 7233) and validation cohort (n = 3024). Patient data in 2018(n = 1360) was used for external validation. We used univariable and multivariable Cox regression model to evaluate independent prognostic factors and constructed a nomogram to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of patients with early-stage RCC. Multiple parameters were used to validate the nomogram, including the consistency index (C-index), the calibration plots, the area under the receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The study included a total of 11,617 elderly patients with early RCC. univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis based on predictive variables such as age, sex, histologic type, Fuhrman grade, T stage, surgery type, tumors number, tumor size, and marriage were included to establish a nomogram. The C-index of the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.748 (95% CI: 0.760–0.736) and 0.744 (95% CI: 0.762–0.726), respectively. In the external validation cohort, C-index was 0.893 (95% CI: 0.928–0.858). The calibration plots basically coincides with the diagonal, indicating that the observed OS was almost equal to the predicted OS. It was shown in DCA that the nomogram has more important clinical significance than the traditional TNM stage. Conclusion A novel nomogram was developed to assess the prognosis of an elderly patient with early RCC and to predict prognosis and formulate treatment and follow-up strategies.

Construction and validation of a novel web-based nomogram for primary ocular adnexal lymphoma: a real-world analysis based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database

“…Due to the limited incidence rate of POALs, there is insufficient POAL data in literature and a lack of prognostic models at present ( 39 ). Recently, nomogram models have been recommended as crucial tools for personalized patient survival prediction in clinical management ( 34 , 40 , 41 ). Consequently, following multivariate analysis, we identified seven optimal variables and developed high-performance predictive models for POAL patients over 2, 5, 10, and 15 years.…”

Tumor Size Is an Independent Prognostic Factor for Stage I Ovarian Clear Cell Carcinoma: A Large Retrospective Cohort Study of 1,000 Patients

“…Tumor size is considered as an independent prognostic factor of clear renal cell carcinoma, and is significantly associated with lympho-vascular space invasion ( 30 , 31 ). For some gynecological malignancies, the tumor size is incorporated into the FIGO stage, such as cervical cancer ( 32 ), vulvar tumor ( 33 ), and uterine sarcoma ( 34 ).…”

A nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival for elderly patients with gallbladder cancer

“…Nomogram as a prediction tool is commonly used to estimate prognosis in oncology and medicine [ 12 ]. By far, it has been used in various cancers, such as liver [ 17 – 19 ], pancreas [ 20 , 21 ], kidney [ 22 , 23 ], and bone [ 24 – 26 ] et al Besides, Bai et al [ 13 ] constructed a nomogram to predict overall survival after gallbladder cancer resection in China. Cai et al constructed a nomogram to predict distant metastasis in T1 and T2 gallbladder cancer [ 14 ].…”

“…Nomogram as a prediction tool is commonly used to estimate prognosis in oncology and medicine [12]. By far, it has been used in various cancers, such as liver [17][18][19], pancreas [20,21], kidney [22,23], and bone [ with gallbladder cancer varies greatly with age, and elderly patients with GBC have higher morbidity and shorter overall survival. Therefore, we developed and validated the nomogram based on patients, tumor characteristics, and treatment methods to estimate the CSS of elderly GBC patients.…”