A Well-Overflow Prediction Algorithm Based on Semi-Supervised Learning

Abstract

Oil drilling is the core process of oil and natural gas resources exploitation. Well overflow is one of the biggest threats to safety drilling. Prediction of the overflow in advance can effectively avoid the occurrence of this kind of accident. However, the drilling history has unbalanced distribution, and labeling data is a time-consuming and laborious job. To address this issue, an overflow-prediction algorithm based on semi-supervised learning is designed in this paper, which can accurately predict overflow 10 min in advance when the labeled data are limited. Firstly, a three-step feature-selection algorithm is conducted to extract 22 features, and the time series samples are constructed through a 500-width sliding window with step size 1. Then, the Mean Teacher model with Jitter noise is employed to train the labeled and unlabeled data at the same time, in which a fused CNN-LSTM network is built for time-series prediction. Compared with supervised learning and other semi-supervised learning frameworks, the results show that the proposed model based on only 200 labeled samples is able to achieve the same effect of supervised learning method using 1000 labeled samples, and the prediction accuracy can reach 87.43% 10 min in advance. With the increase of the proportion of unlabeled samples, the performance of the model can sustain a rise within a certain range.