A Workflow to Quantify and Model Structural Uncertainty: Application to a Deepwater Giant Reservoir, Offshore Mozambique

Abstract

SUMMARYThe uncertainties related to structural seismic interpretation and velocity modeling can have a significant impact on gas in place evaluation. The risks and high investments associated with appraising and developing a deep-water reservoir make reliable quantification of these uncertainties a fundamental step of the risk analysis and ultimately the decision making. These considerations are a key driver for the development plan of the deepwater Mamba Complex, a super giant gas field discovery in offshore northern Mozambique. The magnitude of the discovery and the rapid development planning introduce a series of technical challenges, including the evaluation and quantification of the structural uncertainty, and its integration in the reservoir model. This paper proposes a workflow that effectively integrates probabilistic and scenario-based approaches, aiming to mitigate the risk associated with the development of the Mamba complex, and to help the decision maker.