A young EU member’s ageing: budgetary and macroeconomic consequences of Slovenia’s demographic prospects

Weyerstraß, Klaus; Neck, Reinhard

doi:10.1007/s10663-013-9217-z

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(2 citation statements)

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“…The econometric estimations are based on quarterly data for the period 1995q1 to 2011q4. More details about the model including equations and variable definitions can be found in Weyerstrass and Neck (2013). Earlier versions were used to simulate macroeconomic policy scenarios during ) and after ) the "Great Recession" and to determine optimal policy paths in an economic crisis (Neck et al 2011); SLOPOL9 was used to simulate effects of alternative policies designed to deal with the problems of an aging society and financing the pension system (Weyerstrass and Neck 2013).…”

Section: The Slopol9 Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present investigation transfers other than pensions are considered separately because the pension problem (a long term problem instead of the short term one considered here) was already investigated in Weyerstrass and Neck (2013). As Slovenia is a member of the Euro Area, its monetary policy is conducted by the Euro system and the European Central Bank (ECB) in particular and is no longer available as a national policy instrument.…”

Section: The Slopol9 Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trade-Off of Fiscal Austerity in the European Debt Crisis in Slovenia

2013

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In this paper, we investigate the trade-off between the needs for budget consolidation and the desirability of expansionary fiscal policies as a means of demand management by simulating alternative scenarios with a macroeconometric model of the Slovenian economy. The simulations show that for the Slovenian economy an expansionary fiscal policy is neither feasible nor desirable: it leads to unsustainable government debt and has only weak effects on income and employment. It turns out that that the Stability Programme of the Slovenian government and the related policy prescriptions of the EU lead to reasonable results in terms of public debt without strong adverse effects on output and unemployment. An expansionary fiscal policy is not desirable as it results in unsustainable public debt without enhancing employment and output sufficiently.

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Section: The Slopol9 Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Slopol9 Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%