Abnormally low precipitation-induced ecological imbalance contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty: new evidence from tree rings

Chen, Feng; Hadad, Martín Ariel; Zhao, Xiaoen; Roig, Fidel A.; Zhang, Heli; Wang, Shijie; Yue, Weipeng; Chen, Youping

doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03406-y

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…The precipitation was abnormally reduced throughout the North China region during the ChongZhen Period based on the analysis of multi-source climate proxy data (e.g., the mean annual precipitation near Beijing was reduced by 22 % compared to normal year [ 63 ]). Food insecurity due to persistent water shortages and harvest failures had a ripple effect on Ming's society at that time [ 63 , 64 ]. Both the overall wealth of society and the government were very low, but food prices were high and society had very little food reserves.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The response rules to maintain social stability facing the climate change in ming dynasty

Chen,

Tian,

Tao

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The response rules to maintain social stability facing the climate change in ming dynasty

Chen,

Tian,

Tao

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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“…The statistical evidence reveals that within this study area, occurrences of drought, hunger (also represents famine, but to a lesser extent), and locust plague tend to coincide within the same year (Figure 9b,c and Table 5). The late Ming Dynasty witnessed soaring food prices due to the confluence of war and drought, necessitating increased military expenditures (Chen et al, 2022). When the available water proved inadequate for sustaining regular production, any adverse event compounded by drought only exacerbated the crisis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of the precipitation variability in the middle Taihang Mountains (1608–2021)

Hou,

Zhao,

Chen

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Understanding historical droughts in northern China is challenging due to the limited time records of meteorological stations. In this study, we reconstructed the precipitation variability in the middle Taihang Mountains over 414 years by using the tree‐ring width of Pinus tabulaeformis. Based on our climate response analysis, Pinus tabulaeformis growth at the sampling sites was mainly restricted by the total precipitation from August of the previous year to June of the current year (P8‐C6), which was used as the dependent variable for precipitation reconstruction. Spatial analysis demonstrated that the reconstructed precipitation contained obvious spatial representativeness in the Taihang Mountains. We compared the precipitation sequence with other dryness/wetness sequences around the study area, revealing common drought events in most of northern China. Furthermore, the multi‐taper method (MTM) demonstrated a significant period of 2–4 years of the reconstructed precipitation. The precipitation variability in the Taihang Mountains may be influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and has exhibited a negative correlation in recent decades. This study has reconstructed the historical changes in wet and dry conditions to offer a reference for the utilization of modern water resources, especially by linking the decrease in precipitation in the study area with the downfall of the Ming Dynasty.

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“…The results showed that the tree-ring width can reflect the change in the NDVI in the growing season in middle and high latitudes. For example, tree rings were used to reconstruct the NDVI (245 years) from May to July, the NDVI (206 years) from June to September, and the NDVI (163 years) from June to August in the southern mountains of the Badain Jaran Desert [101], Hasi Mountain [102], and Xinglong Mountain [103]. Both the tree-ring width and NDVI had a significant positive correlation with precipitation in the periods of July-August and May-June of last year, and a significant negative correlation with the temperature in the period of May-June of the same year.…”

Section: Research On the Reconstruction Of Vegetation Change In The H...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation Index Research on the Basis of Tree-Ring Data: Current Status and Prospects

Zhang,

Song,

Fan

et al. 2023

Forests

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The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tree-ring parameters are commonly used indicators in the research on forest ecology and responses to climate change. This paper compiles and analyzes the literature on vegetation index research on the basis of tree-ring information in the past 20 years and provides an overview of the relationship between tree-ring parameters and NDVI, as well as NDVI reconstruction. The research on the vegetation index based on tree-ring data is mainly concentrated in the middle and high latitudes, and relatively few studies are concentrated in the low latitudes. The tree-ring parameters have a strong correlation with the NDVI in the summer. In terms of tree-ring reconstruction NDVI, Sabina przewalskii is the tree with the longest reconstruction sequence so far, and the tree-ring width is the main proxy index. In addition, combining tree rings with the NDVI is useful for assessing forest decline, quantifying the forest response to drought, and monitoring forest productivity. In the future, it is necessary to consider a variety of environmental factors to find the optimal model construction parameters and carry out research on the climate response of forest tree growth and the reconstruction of the historical sequence of the vegetation index at large spatial scales.

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Abnormally low precipitation-induced ecological imbalance contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty: new evidence from tree rings

Cited by 12 publications

References 81 publications

The response rules to maintain social stability facing the climate change in ming dynasty

The response rules to maintain social stability facing the climate change in ming dynasty

Tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of the precipitation variability in the middle Taihang Mountains (1608–2021)

Vegetation Index Research on the Basis of Tree-Ring Data: Current Status and Prospects

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