Absorption of Solar Radiation by Noctilucent Clouds in a Changing Climate

Abstract

The expected increase in climate change related methane emissions will result in an increase in middle atmospheric water vapor abundance. This will in turn amplify the brightness of noctilucent clouds (NLC). To examine how NLC will impact the absorption of solar radiation, we utilized both an atmospheric background model and a microphysical model spanning the period from 1950 to 2100. At a latitude of 69 ± 3°N, UV absorption at λ = 126 nm is projected to rise from ∼3% to ∼7%. In specific regions, the absorption may spike to approximately 30% by the year 2100. In the visible spectrum, we observe an absorption increase from 0.0030% in 1950 to 0.020% by 2100. Local absorption reach up to 0.35% by the year 2100. These trends are similar at 79 ± 3°N, but are smaller at 58 ± 3°N. Future average absorptions are comparable to solar cycle fluctuations, but local increases are significantly more pronounced. The ice mass contained in NLC is projected to surge from 677 to 1871 tons between 1950 and 2100.