Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools

Watson, Phil J.

doi:10.2112/jcoastres-d-16-00086.1

Cited by 31 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…Watson [33] developed a methodology to provide a consistent and transparent appraisal of the acceleration in mean sea level records using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). This technique readily separates the trend of sea levels from the 60 years dynamic ocean oscillations and noise.…”

Section: Sea Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Levels in a Changing Climate

McCrann¹

2018

GEOMATE

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ABSTRACT:The rise of sea levels could have devastating consequences for coastal settlements, and it can easily be one of the most critical effects of climate change. Thus, all factors affecting sea levels need to be considered. One of the factors discussed in this paper is the natural variability of sea levels, which originates from the oscillation of the planets and solar activity. The effect of the Sun's activity on Earth's climate has been identified since the 1800s. However, there are still many unknowns regarding the mechanisms connecting the Earth's climate to the variation in solar irradiance. Climate modelling that implements the solar sciences is a novel approach that accounts for the considerable effect that natural factors have on the climate, especially at regional level. This paper discusses the noticeable effect that planet oscillations have on the Sun's activity, which gives a very good correlation with the observed patterns in global surface temperatures, rainfall records and sea levels. In agreement with many studies that have identified a 60-year cycle in the variation of Earth's temperature, it is expected that surface temperatures will reach a trough of the cycle around 2030-2040. Furthermore, considering the influence of the Solar Inertial Motion, a solar slowdown is predicted for Solar Cycles 24 and 25, which will create a weak grand minimum. It is anticipated that this weak grand minimum will be reflected in a dampening effect of global temperatures, and a subsequent moderation in the rate of sea level rise.

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Section: Sea Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Levels in a Changing Climate

McCrann¹

2018

GEOMATE

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“…For example, it is estimated that under a medium to high greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B; Meehl et al, 2007), flooding along with other effects of sea-level rise (e.g., shoreline recession) will lead to annual damage costs across Europe of up to E11 billion for the 2050s, rising to E25 billion by the 2080s (Brown et al, 2011). Flooding more generally will of course be substantially exacerbated by forecast sea-level rise into the future, foreboding an increasingly ominous threat from natural disasters (Watson, 2016c).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The prominence of the climate change issue has placed more emphasis on examination of the extensive global repository of relative mean sea-level records (Holgate et al, 2012), which, along with temperature and carbon dioxide, remain the key proxy data sets used to monitor and quantify changes in the global climate system (Watson, 2016c). In particular, there has recently been renewed, energetic scientific discussion in the literature over the prospect of a measurable acceleration in ocean water level records, a feature central to physics-based projection models that are built upon the current knowledge of climate science (IPCC, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such records provide the world's best time series data with which to examine how kinematic properties of the trend might be changing over time. This paper supplements the detailed analysis of the long U.S. records (Watson, 2016c) using the same analytical framework and methodology, but applied to the extensive network of European tide gauge records.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The outputs of this research tool provide a more consistent, transparent appraisal of acceleration in mean sea-level records around Europe; overcoming many of the evident shortcomings from the wide body of scientific literature on this topic, which are discussed in detail in Watson (2016c).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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