Access to bank financing and start‐up resilience: A survival analysis across business sectors in a time of crisis

Abstract

The presence of exogenous global shocks due to the 2007/2008 economic and financial crisis and the current global pandemic crisis are deeply hampering economic operators' overall ability to access credit. Small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups are most severely affected by credit rationing. This paper investigates whether access to bank loans in the early stage of a start-up's lifecycle is a predictor of a firm's default in a time of economic crisis. We ground our analysis on a firm-level longitudinal data set of Italian new capital companies born from 2004 to 2006. Implementing a discrete-time proportional hazard model we study their likelihood of default up to 2014 after controlling for a consistent number of other firms, industry and innovation related characteristics. The main findings confirm that access to bank loans significantly enhances the resilience of Italian start-ups. By taking into consideration the sectoral degree of innovation where firms operate, we also find that bank financing still exerts a positive influence on firm survival in both less and more innovative industries. However, there is evidence of a stronger positive influence on of long-term debt on the survival of firms operating in low-and medium-low innovative industries.

Survival Analysis Modeling on Credit Risk With Latent Variable Indicator Models

“…Credit delinquency remains an ongoing concern in the banking sector, prompting banks to employ a variety of strategies and protocols to mitigate this risk. Survival analysis can be used to analyze the relationship between access to bank financing and start-up resilience (Castaldo et al, 2023). Studies in this domain may encompass latent variables, such as those associated with the psychological and behavioral aspects of customers.…”