Accidental Nuclear War — A Post–Cold War Assessment

Abstract

The risk of an accidental nuclear attack has increased in recent years, threatening a public health disaster of unprecedented scale. Physicians and medical organizations should work actively to help build support for the policy changes that would prevent such a disaster.

Causes and health consequences of environmental degradation and social injustice

“…Landmines dot the globe, causing over 25,000 deaths and many more injuries each year (US Committee to Ban Land Mines, 2000). The threat of chemical and biological warfare looms larger, especially in light of recent anthrax cases in the US, and the specter of nuclear holocaust (either deliberate or accidental) remains ever-present (Orient, 1989;Forrow, Blair, & Helfand, 1998;Forrow & Sidel, 1998). There is currently a global stockpile of 36,000 nuclear weapons, with 10 pounds of plutonium per weapon (Physicians for Social Responsibility Staff, 2000b).…”

The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities

“…Further cuts lie ahead: the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty signed in May 2002 will reduce total warheads to fewer than 2,200 on either side by the year 2012 (Norris andKristensen 2005a and2005b). But Forrow et al (1998) argued that because of the aging of Russian weapons systems, the risk of an accidental nuclear attack had actually increased. They also calculated that an intermediate-sized launch of warheads from a single Russian submarine would kill nearly instantly about 6.8 million people in eight US cities and expose millions more to potentially lethal radiation.…”

Medicine and Human Rights

“…Many of these weapons remain on hair-trigger alert and pose a risk of accidental as well as purposeful detonation. [64] Both "vertical" proliferation (additions to the stockpiles of nations that now possess these weapons) and "horizontal" proliferation (spread of the weapons to nations that do not now possess them) continue. Examples of "vertical" proliferation include the development of "improved" weapons using subcritical tests and computer simulation (tests not prohibited by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (NPT)).…”