Accommodating Species Climate-Forced Dispersal and Uncertainties in Spatial Conservation Planning

Abstract

Spatial conservation prioritization should seek to anticipate climate change impacts on biodiversity and to mitigate these impacts through the development of dynamic conservation plans. Here, we defined spatial priorities for the conservation of amphibians inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot that overcome the likely impacts of climate change on the distribution of this imperiled fauna. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 431 amphibian species both for current time and for the mid-point of a 30-year period spanning 2071–2099 (i.e. 2080). For modeling species' niches, we combined six modeling methods and three different climate models. We also quantified and mapped model uncertainties. Our consensus models forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in central and eastern Atlantic Forest, both for current time and for 2080. Most species had a significant range contraction (up to 72%) and 12% of species were projected to be regionally extinct. Most species would need to disperse because suitable climatic sites will change. Therefore, we identified a network of priority sites for conservation that minimizes the distance a given species would need to disperse because of changes in future habitat suitability (i.e. climate-forced dispersal) as well as uncertainties associated to ENMs. This network also maximized complementary species representation across currently established protected areas. Priority sites already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future suitable habitats for amphibians. Although we used the a top-ranked Biodiversity Hotspot and amphibians as a case study for illustrating our approach, our study may help developing more effective conservation strategies under climate change, especially when applied at different spatial scales, geographic regions, and taxonomic groups.

Species conservation under future climate change: the case of Bombus bellicosus, a potentially threatened South American bumblebee species

“…Models of future distribution for other bee species also show the loss of suitable areas in future climate change scenarios (Giannini et al 2012). Climate change in the next 50 years is pointed out as a major factor in forecasts of distribution range changes for Atlantic forest trees (Colombo and Joly 2010), amphibians (Lemes and Loyola 2013) and marsupials . For South American moths, climate change will force range shifts and reduce the conservation effectiveness of some protected areas, even leading 4 % of all analysed species to extinction (Ferro et al 2014).…”

“…This leads us to question whether its disappearance in the northern limit of its distribution in southern Brazil was caused only by habitat loss or if climate change may have also played an important role in the species disappearance from its northernmost occurrence limit in Brazil. In South America, range shifts and species losses caused by climate change have been predicted for different groups: Atlantic forest trees (Colombo and Joly 2010), amphibians (Lemes and Loyola 2013), marsupials ) and moths (Ferro et al 2014).…”

“…Usually, these methods relate modelled occurrences of observed species with environmental variables of the known sampling sites to predict new areas suitable for its occurrence (Guisan and Zimmermann 2000;Kearney 2006). These techniques have been employed before to (1) determine insect species' distributions and inform suitable areas for future surveys (Silva et al 2013(Silva et al , 2014, (2) pinpoint modelled species rich areas uncovered by the available protected areas network (Nóbrega and De Marco 2011), and (3) to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on species distributions Lemes and Loyola 2013). Considering this context, we used SDMs to address the potential effects of climate change in distributions of B. bellicosus in southern Brazil considering both current and future climate change scenarios.…”

Global priority areas for amphibian research

“…Between these two extremes, there are other areas for research and with high conservation value such as the Atlantic rainforest, in Brazil. While a great portion of the Atlantic rainforest is currently covered by pasture and agriculture (Hansen et al., ), most priority research areas identified within this region are located in the Serra Do Mar forest, which is currently relatively well preserved and the focus of important conservation efforts (Alves‐Pinto et al., ; Lemes & Loyola, ; Loyola, Lemes, Brum, Provete, & Duarte, ; Zwiener et al., ).…”

Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas

“…The criteria for choosing sites for protection should be based on maximizing the representation of biodiversity (Coll et al, 2010), including phylogenetic and functional diversity (Mouillot et al, 2011) and minimizing the anthropogenic pressures that jeopardize biodiversity (Coll et al, 2012). Connectivity is one of these processes as it is essential to ensure population stability and persistence (Armsworth, 2002;Hastings & Botsford, 2006b) and justifies the need for further research aimed at better characterizing current patterns of connectivity and predicting their future evolution (Mumby et al, 2011;Lemes & Loyola, 2013). Connectivity is one of these processes as it is essential to ensure population stability and persistence (Armsworth, 2002;Hastings & Botsford, 2006b) and justifies the need for further research aimed at better characterizing current patterns of connectivity and predicting their future evolution (Mumby et al, 2011;Lemes & Loyola, 2013).…”