Accounting for long-term serial correlation in a linear regression problem

Estimates of seasonally dependent trends in the mass concentration of the near-surface aerosol are presented on the base of results of 29-year measurements at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the A. M. Obukhov Institute of atmospheric physics. The station is located in the woody countryside, 50 km west to Moscow. The multiple regression method is used for the analysis, in which autocorrelation of measurement data on large time scales is taken into account. Two periods are considered: 1991-2002 and 2013-2019. Excluded is the period 2003-2012 when abnormally high aerosol concentrations of unknown origin were often observed. For the periods 1991-2002 and 2013-2018, statistically significant negative trends were obtained for spring and summer seasons, respectively, and for the entire year. The spring trend in logarithm of concentration in 1991-2002 was -2.6% per year, and the annual trend was about -0.7% per year. For 2013-2019 a strong negative trend of about -6% per year was obtained in the summer season, and the annual trend estimate was -2.3% per year. The probable cause of the negative aerosol trend in the spring seasons of 1991-2002 is long-term changes in atmospheric transport. The negative trend in the summer seasons of 2013-2019 is probably due to the negative trend of summer temperature, drying and felling of spruce forest.

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Manifestation of the 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic climate

Груздев

Bezverkhnii

2020

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Analysis of fluctuations in the climate of the North Atlantic associated with the 11-year solar cycle is done using empirical data of the sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) for 1870-2012 and data of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and Central England temperature. Emphasis is placed on the regions of the Icelandic and Azores atmospheric centers of action (CA). Methods of multiple linear regression and cross-wavelet analysis are used. The analysis reveals decadal oscillations of the SLP lagging by ∼3 years relative to the sunspot number, in the area of the Azores CA in the winter and autumn seasons. SLP variations that are approximately in phase with the solar cycle are noted in autumn in the Icelandic CA. Solar-related SLP variations in the Icelandic CA in winter occur approximately in anti-phase with the variations in the Azores CA, at smaller lag behind the solar cycle. SLP variations associated with the solar cycle are comparable in amplitude to variations due to the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). SST variations associated with the solar cycle are also revealed. They are several times weaker than variations due to the AMO, but of the same order of magnitude as variations due to the ENSO. The relation of the NAO index to the solar cycle is alternating and experiences modulation with a period of about 50 years.

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Accounting for long-term serial correlation in a linear regression problem

Cited by 9 publications

References 20 publications

Interannual variations and long-term trends in total ozone over the North Caucasus

Interannual variations and long-term trends in total ozone over the North Caucasus

Long-term trends in the mass concentration of near-surface aerosol at Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS from 1991-2019 measurements

Manifestation of the 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic climate

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