Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta

Abstract

 Understanding who wins and who loses under different futures can help planners in anticipating and ameliorating future inequalities. We show how inequality patterns are sensitive to external uncertainties and adaptation policies. Exploring inequality patterns requires accounting for multisectoral dynamics, which often has implications for the modelling choices.

Irrigation development under uncertainty: A call for adaptive investment pathways

“…1. Thompson and Tuden framework for classifying the use of adaptation pathways approach in literature (Bhave et al, 2018;Bosomworth et al, 2017;Butler et al, 2016;Jafino et al, 2021;Roelich and Giesekam, 2019;Sharpe et al, 2016). Adapted from Bosomworth et al (2015).…”

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

“…While we consider all non-socioeconomic and non-agriculture Shared Socioeconomic Pathway assumptions together using a switch parameter, future work could unbundle these assumptions to consider their individual impacts on water scarcity. Our analysis focuses on the spatial heterogeneity across the drivers of basin-scale water scarcity, but there exists abundant potential for future work focused on the temporal evolution of scarcity and on the region-scale spatial patterns of scarcity that emerge across scenarios as is done in Jafino et al (2021).…”

“…The technique is well-suited to problems with significant uncertainties that can be explored by considering a wide array of parameter assumptions. Scenario discovery is useful for studying the multisector dynamics of the coupled human-Earth system (Gerst et al, 2013;Hallegatte et al, 2012;Jafino et al, 2021;Lamontagne et al, 2018;Lempert & Groves, 2010;McJeon et al, 2011). Here, we use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of both physical water scarcity and its economic impacts in LAC across a wide range of plausible socioeconomic and climatic futures.…”

Evaluating Implementation Uncertainties and Defining Safe Operating Spaces for Deeply Uncertain Cooperative Multi‐City Water Supply Investment Pathways

“…Changes in financial stability, access to capital, and debt rates affect the ability or willingness of a utility to invest in new infrastructure, which is necessary for addressing the long‐term persistent vulnerabilities to demand growth rates and extreme climate conditions (Cai et al., 2015; Gorelick et al., 2023; Smull et al., 2022). Therefore, adaptive water supply policy pathways planning frameworks that do not sufficiently account for the interactions between different drivers of supply and financial risk across timescales can result in poor overall performance (Jafino et al., 2020) and conceal consequential future scenarios from planners (Birnbaum et al., 2022). The challenges associated with bridging short‐term water management actions and long‐term investment pathways are exacerbated by the deeply uncertain nature of plausible future climate and socioeconomic conditions.…”