Accuracy assessment of temperature trends from ERA5 and ERA5-Land

Yılmaz, Meriç

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159182

Cited by 58 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Second, self-reported outcomes are subject to memory biases, but we assume a weak association with ambient temperature, which would not significantly confound the results. Third, historical meteorological data were derived from atmospheric reanalysis products rather than observations, but previous studies showed that this kind of association can be minimal. Reanalysis data have been proven to be a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses, particularly in assessing temperature-associated risks .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of Ambient Temperature With the Prevalence of Intimate Partner Violence Among Partnered Women in Low- and Middle-Income South Asian Countries

Zhu

Bell

et al. 2023

JAMA Psychiatry

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ImportanceIntimate partner violence (IPV), including physical, sexual, and emotional violence, constitutes a critical public health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. While climate change could escalate violent events, data quantifying its possible association with IPV are scant.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of ambient temperature with the prevalence of IPV among partnered women in low- and middle-income countries in South Asia, and to estimate the association of future climate warming with IPV.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study used data from the Demographic and Health Survey and included 194 871 ever-partnered women aged 15 to 49 years from 3 South Asian countries (India, Nepal, and Pakistan). The study applied the mixed-effect multivariable logistic regression model to investigate the association of ambient temperature with IPV prevalence. The study further modeled the change in IPV prevalence under various future climate change scenarios. The data included in the analyses were collected from October 1, 2010, to April 30, 2018, and the current analyses were performed from January 2, 2022, to July 11, 2022.ExposureAnnual ambient temperature exposure for each woman, estimated based on an atmospheric reanalysis model of the global climate.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe prevalence of IPV and its types (physical, sexual, and emotional violence) were assessed based on self-reported questionnaires from October 1, 2010, to April 30, 2018, and the changes in the prevalence with climate changes were estimated through the 2090s.ResultsThe study included 194 871 ever-partnered women aged 15 to 49 years (mean [SD] age, 35.4 [7.6] years; overall IPV prevalence, 27.0%) from 3 South Asian countries. The prevalence of physical violence was highest (23.0%), followed by emotional (12.5%), and sexual violence (9.5%). The annual temperature ranges were mostly between 20 °C and 30 °C. A significant association was found between high ambient temperature and the prevalence of IPV against women, with each 1 °C increase in the annual mean temperature associated with a mean increase in IPV prevalence of 4.49% (95% CI, 4.20%-4.78%). According to the study’s projections under the unlimited emissions scenarios (SSPs [shared socioeconomic pathways], as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] 5-8.5), IPV prevalence would increase by 21.0% by the end of the 21st century, while it would only moderately increase under increasingly stricter scenarios (SSP2-4.5 [9.8%] and SSP1-2.6 [5.8%]). In addition, the projected increases in the prevalence of physical (28.3%) and sexual (26.1%) violence were greater than that of emotional violence (8.9%). In the 2090s, India was estimated to experience the highest IPV prevalence increase (23.5%) among the 3 countries, compared with Nepal (14.8%) and Pakistan (5.9%).Conclusions and RelevanceThis cross-sectional, multicountry study provides ample epidemiological evidence to support that high ambient temperature may be associated with the risk of IPV against women. These findings highlight the vulnerabilities and inequalities of women experiencing IPV in low- and middle-income countries in the context of global climate warming.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of Ambient Temperature With the Prevalence of Intimate Partner Violence Among Partnered Women in Low- and Middle-Income South Asian Countries

Zhu

Bell

et al. 2023

JAMA Psychiatry

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“…In Türkiye, the annual mean temperature shows a significant increase trend (0.88°C/century) in all regions, especially since 1993. The warming trends reached 0.91°C/decade over entire Türkiye for the years 2001–2020 (Hadi & Tombul, 2018; Yilmaz, 2023). On the other hand, drought frequency and intensity have increased since the 1970s over the Mediterranean Basin (Caloiero et al, 2018), and climate simulations project a decrease in precipitation of about 20%–40% by the end of the 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986–2005.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies have documented that due to global climate change in Türkiye, changes in the warming more prominently in the summer season and precipitation patterns have occurred since the middle of the 20th century (Hadi & Tombul, 2018; Tayanç et al, 2009; Türkeș et al, 2016). The trends determined based on ERA5 and ERA5‐Land temperature data showed that the increase in average temperatures in Türkiye for 2001–2020 and 1951–2020 was 0.91 and 0.21°C per decade, respectively (Yilmaz, 2023). Indeed, since the 1980s, there have been indications that warming in the Mediterranean Basin has been greater than on a global scale.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

Yavaşlı,

Erlat

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change can alter the spatial and temporal distribution of aridity around the world through a combination of factors such as reduced precipitation, rising temperatures and decreased evapotranspiration. Especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change due to a significant reduction in precipitation compared to other land regions in all climate models operated under different scenarios. Despite numerous studies on aridity trends, few have focused specifically on Türkiye and considered a comprehensive range of aridity indices and scenarios. This study aims to fill this research gap by providing a more detailed understanding of future aridity trends in Türkiye under various climate change scenarios and using multiple aridity indices. A novelty of this study lies in the simultaneous examination of three aridity indices (PCI, EAI and UNEP AI) for Türkiye, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of future aridity trends. Furthermore, this study considers three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate the potential range of climate change impacts on aridity in Türkiye. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to determine the changes in aridity conditions in Türkiye until the end of the 21st century. We used three aridity indices: the Pinna combinative index, the Erinç aridity index and the UNEP aridity index. These indices were calculated for the baseline period of 1981–2010 using gridded data (CHELSA) and for the periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 using three climate models (GFDL‐ESM4, MRI‐ESM2‐0 and IPSL‐CM6A‐LR) and multi‐model means with three SSPs to represent different future scenarios. The results showed that all three indices indicate an increase in dry climate conditions in Türkiye after 2041, with particularly notable increases expected in Central Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia and parts of the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as eastern parts of Eastern Anatolia and the inner Aegean region. Under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario, the expansion of semi‐arid and arid areas is predicted to cover more than 30% of the country by the end of the century (2071–2100). This increase in aridity could increase the region's vulnerability to climate change and the risk of desertification, which should be taken into consideration in national water management and planning.

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“…ERA5-Land is the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis, with an enhanced spatial resolution (9 km) that is based on the use of state-ofthe-art land surface modelling. This dataset is reliable for many land surface applications (e.g., Pelosi & Chirico, 2021;Yilmaz, 2023;Zhao & He, 2022). The overall skill of ERA5-Land in representing the spatiotemporal climatology of the h-index was evaluated using the first dataset of HadISD.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the h‐index as a climate metric for the Arabian Peninsula

Alghamdi,

Harrington Jr

2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A number of indices exist to help climatologists understand and communicate varying aspects of local to global scale conditions. The h‐index can be applied to weather data to summarize the magnitude and frequency of heat events on an annual or seasonal basis. Using both station and reanalysis model output data for the Arabian Peninsula, this research documents the value of the h‐index approach. The method is applied to daily high temperature, daily high apparent temperature, warm overnight low temperature and warm overnight apparent temperature for the period 1991–2022. Application of the h‐index approach to data from the Arabian Peninsula provides findings that strengthen and add to existing knowledge for the region. Findings from analysis of the ERA5‐Land dataset reinforce the findings from station data and provide results for wall‐to‐wall coverage of the study area, with lower h‐index values at higher elevations. Trend analysis results corroborate ideas related to greater warming of overnight lows. The findings document that the h‐index can be used in a subtropical desert climate region.

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Accuracy assessment of temperature trends from ERA5 and ERA5-Land

Cited by 58 publications

References 39 publications

Association of Ambient Temperature With the Prevalence of Intimate Partner Violence Among Partnered Women in Low- and Middle-Income South Asian Countries

Association of Ambient Temperature With the Prevalence of Intimate Partner Violence Among Partnered Women in Low- and Middle-Income South Asian Countries

Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

Evaluating the h‐index as a climate metric for the Arabian Peninsula

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