Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts

Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria; Amelsfort, Dirk van; Brundell-Freij, Karin; Engelson, Leonid

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2013.04.004

Cited by 23 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…This demand spilled over to the subsequent time intervals. Eliasson et al (2013) present a slightly stronger observed reduction of traffic flow across the cordon due to a somewhat different selection of counting locations corresponding to the congestion charging gates.…”

Section: Comparison Between the Modeled And The Observed Impact 41 mentioning

confidence: 77%

“…In a recent paper, Eliasson et al (2013) compare forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. They conclude that the aggregate effects like traffic reduction in 2 L. Engelson and D. van Amelsfort bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, and the decrease in vehicle kilometers in the city center were predicted well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme.…”

Section: Motivation and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

Engelson

Amelsfort

2015

Transportation Planning and Technology

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This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.

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Section: Comparison Between the Modeled And The Observed Impact 41 mentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Motivation and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

Engelson

Amelsfort

2015

Transportation Planning and Technology

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“…14 These results were found when comparing the model prediction with the real outcome of the introduction of the Stockholm congestion charges(Eliasson et al, 2013).…”

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confidence: 94%

An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro

Börjesson

Jönsson

Lundberg

2014

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

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a b s t r a c tThis paper performs an ex-post cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the Metro system in Stockholm built in the 1950s. We find that the Metro was socially beneficial and that the largest benefit of the Metro is its capacity, making it possible for many people to travel to and from the city center. We also assess the significance of the wider economic impacts due to labor market distortions and the land-use effects in the case of the Stockholm Metro. The wider economic impacts increase the consumer surplus with 48%, and the yearly income in the county with 1.5%. A land-use model is used to simulate how the land-use has been influenced by the Metro over the years 1956-2006. This simulation indicates that the historical centralized planning of housing along transit corridors has developed the region into a more dispersed region than if the market forces had ruled. The simulation also suggests that the land-use impact from the investment itself is small, but that the land-use impact from the planning accompanying the decision to build the Metro has been substantial.

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“…The travel time reductions on links outside the cordon were therefore substantially underestimated by the transport model (Börjesson and Kristoffersson 2014;Eliasson et al 2013). …”

Section: Cost-benefit Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Gothenburg congestion charges: cost–benefit analysis and distribution effects

West

Börjesson

2018

Transportation

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This paper performs an ex-post cost-benefit and distribution analysis of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013, based on observed effects and an ex-post evaluated transport model. Although Gothenburg is a small city with congestion limited to the highway junctions, the congestion charge scheme is socially beneficial, generating a net surplus of €20 million per year. From a financial perspective, the investment cost was repaid in slightly more than a year and, from a social surplus perspective, is repaid in\ 4 years. Still, the sums that are redistributed in Gothenburg are substantially larger than the net benefit. In the distribution analysis we develop an alternative welfare rule, where the utility is translated to money by dividing the utility by the average marginal utility of money, thereby avoiding putting a higher weight on high-income people. The alternative welfare rule shows larger redistribution effects, because paying charges is more painful for low-income classes due to the higher marginal utility of money. Low-income citizens pay a larger share of their income because all income classes are highly car dependent in Gothenburg and workers in the highest income class have considerably higher access to company cars for private trips. No correlation was found between voting pattern and gains, losses or net gain.

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Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts

Cited by 23 publications

References 20 publications

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro

The Gothenburg congestion charges: cost–benefit analysis and distribution effects

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