Early assessment of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for breast cancer allows therapy to be tailored; however, optimal response assessment methods have not been established. We estimated the accuracy of ultrasound (US) to predict pathologic complete response (pCR) using common response criteria and pCR definitions, and estimated incremental accuracy over known prognostic variables. Participants undergoing US after two cycles in the GeparTrio trial randomised to no change in NAC were eligible. US response by World Health Organisation (WHO) criteria (1D or 2D) and Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (RECIST) was assessed. Four pCR definitions were applied. Sensitivity (correct prediction of pCR), specificity (correct prediction of no-pCR) and diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) were calculated. Areas under the curve (AUCs) were derived from logistic regression including patient variables with and without US. In 832 patients, DORs decreased as pCR definitions became less stringent (p 5 0.01). For WHO-2D, DORs were as follows: 4.07 (ypT0,ypN0), 3.75 (ypT0/is,ypN0), 3.14 (ypT0/ is,ypN1/2) and 2.65 (ypT0/is/1a,ypN1/2). DORs did not differ between US criteria (p 5 0.60). High sensitivity and lower specificity were found for WHO-2D and RECIST; WHO-1D was highly specific with low sensitivity. Sensitivity was highest for WHO-2D predicting ypT0,ypN0 (sensitivity 5 81.7%, specificity 5 47.6% vs. 42.3% and 80.4% for WHO-1D). Adding US to models including patient variables (age, T-stage, histology and subtype) improved AUCs for predicting pCR by 2-3%. In conclusion, US accuracy is highest for predicting ypT0,ypN0, shown to be most prognostic of long-term survival. WHO-2D and RECIST maximise sensitivity; WHO-1D maximises specificity. US modestly improves the prediction of pCR by patient characteristics.Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has a well-established role in the management of breast cancer, with randomised controlled trials showing similar long-term disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS), and increased rates of breast conserving surgery compared with upfront surgery and adjuvant therapy. 1 A key advantage of NAC is the opportunity to assess response early during treatment as a predictor of pathologic complete response (pCR) at the end of therapy 2 (a surrogate marker for prolonged DFS and OS), and for treatment modification to increase DFS and OS in hormone receptor positive breast cancers. 3 Randomised controlled trials that assessed early response by clinical examination and ultrasound (US) have indicated benefits of therapy modification in responders and non-responders. Increased rates of pCR, breast conservation and improved OS were found in the Aberdeen trial for responders randomised to taxanes after four cycles of anthracycline-based NAC relative to those continuing treatment. 4,5 The GeparTrio trial randomised early responders to standard or extended anthracycline/taxanebased NAC and found longer DFS and a trend towards longer OS when therapy was extended. 6 Improved DFS and treatment ...