Accuracy Verification of Irradiance Forecast using Numerical Weather Prediction Data by Japan Meteorological Agency

Yamagishi, Yoshio; Saji, Kensuke; Aoki, Isao; Tanikawa, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

doi:10.1541/ieejpes.132.334

Cited by 7 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Other approaches have been described in the literature [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] for predicting solar radiation from GPV data and extraterrestrial horizontal solar radiation intensity for the target period.…”

Section: Forecasting Using a Physical Model This Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Yatsubo

Miyake

Takada

2018

IEEJ Transactions Elec Engng

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In recent years, Japan has rapidly extended its use of electricity obtained via photovoltaic (PV) generation. When the proportion of PV in the generation mix was small, its unpredictable output fluctuations had little effect on the supply and demand operation. However, as the role of PV in grid supply grows, predicting these fluctuations becomes increasingly necessary to ensure stable and economical operation of the electric power system. In this study, we discuss the current approaches of estimating and forecasting the PV output. PrefaceElectricity supply networks must balance the supply capacity with the fluctuating demand. Capacity is adjusted by bringing power stations on-and off-line and changing the power generated. However, the price of electricity from different units varies according to the generation method used and, therefore, it is necessary to seek the most economical combination at any demand level [1].Recent years have seen an expansion in the role played by renewable energy in Japan as the country attempts to build a low-carbon society. These renewable energy sources are clean and sustainable and do not emit greenhouse gases, but their output fluctuates in response to the weather conditions, posing challenges to the stability of the supply system. Photovoltaic (PV) generation is an example of the most widely deployed renewable source, so the transmission departments of power companies are investigating and deploying various measures to support demand/supply balancing in a system with a large PV component [2].In this study, we discuss the challenges that this poses and the approaches currently being pursued. However, the generation units that can be directly observed by telemetry from the central load dispatching center of a power company are limited to those interconnected with power lines of 60 kV or greater, which excludes most of the grid-connected PV. New techniques are therefore needed to monitor (estimate) the power generated by PV units. Necessity of Estimating and Forecasting PV outputIn the case of PV, abrupt fluctuations in output can be caused by short-term changes in weather conditions. These are too brief to be predicted from the daily weather forecast alone. Load balancing requires thermal power stations, hydroelectric generation, and pumped storage to be ramped up or run down to compensate for these abrupt fluctuations in the PV output.With the high penetration of PV, the grid operators may no longer be able to ensure constant power supply because thermal and hydroelectric generation constitutes a smaller proportion of the generation mix.In particular, mid-merit-order thermal stations, which play a key role in supply balancing, require several hours to bring the power units off or on line, making it necessary to evolve precise shortterm forecasting of PV output and ensure low power generation costs. PV Output Estimation TechnologyThe output of a PV unit can be calculated by multiplying the solar radiation intensity at the installation location by the conversion efficiency of the P...

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Section: Forecasting Using a Physical Model This Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Yatsubo

Miyake

Takada

2018

IEEJ Transactions Elec Engng

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“…The GPV data that we used consisted of a mesoscale numerical forecasting model (MSM) and a global-scale numerical forecasting model (GSM), as in the earlier investigation [2]. As can be seen in Fig.…”

Section: Gpv Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The GPV data were used as in the previous investigation [2], both for the creation of the forecasting model and for forecasting. First, the creation of the forecasting model is described.…”

Section: Gpv Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We make use of the generalized additive model (GAM) [8,9], a nonlinear regression model. A method of weighted averaging of the results of the irradiance forecasting model around the above times was employed so that the models for the 3-h intervals from 6:00 to 18:00 could be used in making 1-h forecasts [2]. A method of weighted averaging of the results of the irradiance forecasting model around the above times was employed so that the models for the 3-h intervals from 6:00 to 18:00 could be used in making 1-h forecasts [2].…”

Section: Irradiance Forecasting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There have been various reports on irradiance forecasting, and many reports deal with forecasting by numerical weather prediction (grid point values [GPV]), which is considered particularly important for practical purposes [1,2]. Thus, techniques of forecasting the irradiance level, which affects PV output, appear increasingly important.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Accuracy of Irradiance Forecasts Using JMA Numerical Weather Prediction Data at Numerous Points Corresponding to a High Degree of PV Penetration

Nagoya

Saji²,

Aoki³

et al. 2015

Electrical Engineering Japan

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To assure power system stability when variable photovoltaic (PV) power generation is deployed on a large scale, accurate irradiance forecasting will be important in the near future. A substantial amount of PVs will be generating power at numerous locations in the power service area, and it will be necessary to predict the total PV output for supply/demand balancing control. Therefore, irradiance forecasting accuracy should be verified using the total irradiance at numbers of sites equivalent to areas with largescale PV deployment. This paper reports an investigation of the accuracy of an approach to area total irradiance prediction based on regional numerical weather prediction data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. The forecast area total irradiance is compared to the assumed total area irradiance for numbers of sites equivalent to large-scale PV deployment. C⃝ 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 193(2): 30-41, 2015; Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com).

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Short-term forecast for photovoltaic power generation and development of measuring equipment

Kobayashi

Arai

2014

7th International Conference on Information and Automation for Sustainability

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Accuracy Verification of Irradiance Forecast using Numerical Weather Prediction Data by Japan Meteorological Agency

Cited by 7 publications

References 3 publications

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Accuracy of Irradiance Forecasts Using JMA Numerical Weather Prediction Data at Numerous Points Corresponding to a High Degree of PV Penetration

Short-term forecast for photovoltaic power generation and development of measuring equipment

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