Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system

Brown, Calum; Alexander, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5

Cited by 81 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Finally, uncertainty in whether or not an NDC will be achieved could be important for some countries, particularly those with large LULUCF fluxes and changing or conflicting policy objectives, such as Brazil and Indonesia (Brown et al, 2019).…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001190mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Fyson

Jeffery

2019

Earth's Future

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Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities, including deforestation and forest restoration, will play an important role in addressing climate change. Countries have stated their contributions to reducing emissions and enhancing sinks in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); in 2023, the Global Stocktake will assess the collective impact of these NDCs. Clarity in the contribution of LULUCF to NDC targets is necessary to prevent high LULUCF uncertainties from undermining the strength and clarity of mitigation in other sectors. We assess and categorize all 167 NDCs and find wide variation in how they incorporate LULUCF; many lack the clear information necessary to understand what land-based mitigation is anticipated. The land sector is included in 121 NDCs, but only 11 provide a LULUCF target that can be fully quantified using information presented or referenced in the NDC. By developing alternative scenarios from a subset of 62 NDCs (89 countries), we estimate that ambiguity in LULUCF contributions causes an uncertainty range in the anticipated LULUCF sink in 2030 of magnitude 2.9 GtCO2eq/year-larger in size than our best estimate for the LULUCF sink of −2 GtCO2eq/year. Clearer communication of data sources and assumptions underlying the contribution of land use to mitigation efforts is therefore important for ensuring a robust Global Stocktake and ambitious emissions reductions. We find that guidance under the Paris Agreement may improve the clarity of future NDCs but is not sufficient to eliminate ambiguities. We therefore recommend that LULUCF targets should be presented and accounted for separately from other sectors.Plain Language Summary Land-based activities, including reducing deforestation and planting forests, play an important role in addressing climate change. Under the Paris Agreement, 195 countries agreed to produce national climate change action plans for reducing their emissions. Many of these plans already include land-based activities, but there is currently no common rule set for how to do so in a scientifically robust way. Our study shows that most national climate action plans are ambiguous in how land-based activities will contribute to reducing emissions. This makes it difficult to track the role of land-based activities in global efforts to address climate change and leaves the door open for countries to use uncertain land-based mitigation to offset emissions from burning fossil fuels. We estimate that this ambiguity causes an uncertainty of~3 GtCO2/year in 2030; this is larger than our estimate of the total human-made land use sink in 2030 (-2 GtCO2/year). Recently, countries agreed a set of guidance for how to describe their climate change action plans. This guidance will help to reduce some ambiguity in the role of land-based mitigation, but it is not sufficient to eliminate ambiguity. We recommend that countries should keep their land-based mitigation plans separate from targets in other sectors.

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Section: 1029/2019ef001190mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Fyson

Jeffery

2019

Earth's Future

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“…All stakeholders are essential and their actions complement each other, however, as the issues of sustainability governance and related decision-making processes are investigated by many (e.g. Dietz et al 2003, Magalhães et al 2016, Brown et al 2019, Sterner et al 2019, discussing the role of global policy processes is beyond the scope of this paper, instead it focuses on the 'other side of the coin': the role of individuals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Living within a One Planet reality: the contribution of personal Footprint calculators

Collins

Galli²,

Hipwood

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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During the last 50 years, humanity's Ecological Footprint has increased by nearly 190% indicating a growing unbalance in the human-environment relationship, coupled with major environmental and social changes. Our ability to live within the planet's biological limits requires not only a major rethink in how we produce and distribute 'things', but also a shift in consumption activities. Footprint calculators can provide a framing that communicates the extent to which an individual's daily activities are compatible with our One Planet context. This paper presents the findings from the first international study to assess the value of personal Footprint calculators in guiding individuals towards sustainable consumption choices. It focuses specifically on Global Footprint Network's personal Footprint calculator, and aims to understand the profile of calculator users and assess the contribution of calculators to increasing individual awareness and encouraging sustainable choices. Our survey of 4245 respondents show that 75% of users resided in 10 countries, 54% were aged 18-34 years and had largely used the calculator within an educational context (62%). The calculator was considered a valuable tool for knowledge generation by 91% of users, and 78% found it useful to motivate action. However, only 23% indicated the calculator provided them with the necessary information to make actual changes to their life and reduce their personal Footprint. The paper discusses how and why this personal Footprint calculator has been effective in enhancing individuals' understanding of the environmental impact of their actions, framing the scale of the problem and empowering users to understand the impacts of different lifestyle choices. Those individual-level and system-level changes needed to generate global sustainability outcomes are also discussed. Similar to other calculators, a gap is also identified in terms of this calculator facilitating individuals to convert new knowledge into action.

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“…Furthermore, while several studies have investigated the feasibility of achieving afforestation/ reforestation targets at a global scale [6, 29], none have done so at the regional scale, where decisions about afforestation/reforestation are made in practice. This also means that simulated pathways tend to place an unreasonable burden on areas such as the tropics, where substantial forest carbon sinks exist, but which are not necessarily best-placed to resist the pressures of agricultural expansion [30]. To guide mitigation planning and policy, we therefore need more realistic analyses of regional pathways to achieving the Paris target within their global context.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, although the EU leadership played a significant role in developing global climate change policies including the Paris Agreement [32], practical implementation has been dissatisfying. The EUs NDC is notably vague and inexplicit, making it difficult to implement [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Lee

Brown

Seo

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the Paris Agreement to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5°C and 2°C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15% yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57%). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.

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Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system

Cited by 81 publications

References 72 publications

Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Living within a One Planet reality: the contribution of personal Footprint calculators

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

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