Achieving net-zero emissions in China’s passenger transport sector through regionally tailored mitigation strategies

Bu, Chujie; Cui, Xueqin; Li, Ruiyao; Li, Jin; Zhang, Yaxin; Wang, Can; Cai, Wenjia

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116265

Cited by 54 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…In this study, we developed a bottom-up modeling framework following the structure of “Energy-Emission-Health” used by most studies in the area (Figure S12). The Chinese Provincial Passenger transport Energy and Emission (CPPEE) model and Multiregional model for Energy Supply system and their Environmental ImpaCts (MESEIC) model − were employed to estimate the future private vehicle (PV) fleet size, electricity generation and transmission, and energy demand and emission. Next, the quasi-input–output (QIO) model was applied to calculate the indirect impacts through interprovincial grid transmission of electricity in each province.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Banning new sales of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) (hereinafter referred to as “the ban policy”), recently highlighted in COP26, is a promising deep-decarbonization measure in the private vehicle sector in the postsubsidy era. To date, Hainan (located in the southern part of China) has been the pioneering province to announce a ban on the sale of ICEVs by 2030, and the schedule of the ban policy in other provinces is under hot discussion. − Therefore, discussing how to arrange an appropriate banning order at the provincial level has practical significance in the policy context of China. As electrification is a widely recognized pathway to replace ICEVs in the private vehicle sector in China, − the health cobenefits of provincial-level ban policies are mainly the trade-offs between two aspects: the health benefits contributed by the phasing-out of ICEVs and the health damage brought by the new sales of electric vehicles (EVs) to fulfill transportation needs. ,,, The former aspect (which results in the reduced use of gasoline or diesel) is well-understood, while the latter needs further explanation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Incorporating Health Cobenefits into Province-Driven Climate Policy: A Case of Banning New Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Sales in China

Shen

Chen²,

et al. 2023

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Incorporating health cobenefits from coabated air pollution into carbon mitigation policy making is particularly important for developing countries to boost policy efficiency. For sectors that highly depend on electrification for decarbonization, it remains unclear how the increased electricity demand and consequent health impacts from sectoral mitigation policy in one province would change the scale and the regional and sectoral distributions of the overall health impacts in the whole country. This study chooses the banning of new sales of internal combustion engine vehicles in the private vehicle sector in China as a case. The results show that, without carbon neutrality and air pollution control goals in electricity generation, 53% of CO 2 reduction and 65% of health benefits from the private vehicle sector would be offset by increased electricity demand. The regional distributions of CO 2 reduction and health benefits due to a province-driven ban policy are greatly uneven, as the top five provinces take up over one-third of the total impact in China. Health benefits per ton of carbon reduction (H/C) may vary by up to 8 times across provinces. Finally, the provinces in southeast China and the Sichuan Basin, with their stably high H/C values, are suggested to enact the province-driven ban policy first.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating Health Cobenefits into Province-Driven Climate Policy: A Case of Banning New Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Sales in China

Shen

Chen²,

et al. 2023

Environ. Sci. Technol.

Self Cite

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“…Outside Switzerland, at the transport sectoral level, Bu et al (2020) and Zhang et al (2016) looked at the Chinese passenger transport while Logan et al (2020) presents net-zero options for UK rail transportation. Dhar et al (2018) have assessed decarbonization option for Indian transport sector for reaching 1.5°C using MARKAL model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector

Kannan

Panos

Hirschberg

et al. 2022

Futures & Foresight Science

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The Swiss government sets out a net‐zero emission goal by 2050 while phasing out nuclear energy. This study presents insights on the transport sector's contribution to meet this goal, in terms of which type of vehicle drivetrains and fuel supply options are cost‐effective? What could be critical for the transition of the transportation sector? We use the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model and assess prospective technological scenarios for the whole energy system. The transport module has fast‐charging stations and mechanisms to control e‐mobility charging. Results indicate that extensive direct and indirect electrification of mobility increases the electricity demand up to 22 TWh. While to a certain extent electric cars are competitive even if the climate would not be the priority, carbon neutrality requires a boost for electrified mobility where battery‐ and plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles are largely evolving as a solution for small‐medium size car segments while fuel cell cars are an attractive option for big size car segments. Hybridization of buses and trucks emerges as a competitive option but they are propelled with bio‐ and synthetic fuels. The transport sector emerges as a major driver for the deployment of hydrogen in the energy sector in the long term.

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“…In addition, there are common topdown methods, such as Bu et al, which use Gompertz function to describe the relationship between car ownership and per capita GDP to predict the future car ownership. Further, according to the survival curve of the relationship between vehicle scrap and inventory, the scrap rate is obtained, and finally the vehicle sales volume in the future is calculated [8]. Some scholars also use the dynamic material flow method to establish a prediction model of passenger car scrap volume [9].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy

2021

WEVJ

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The corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy (2021–2023) was officially released in June 2020. As a mandatory regulation for automobile manufacturers to produce new energy vehicles, its impact on the output of new energy vehicles needs to be systematically evaluated. In this study, we build an enterprise policy compliance model to simulate the dual-credit policy requirements for the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 under different scenarios. The results show that the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 is required to reach 1.78 to 3.97 million under different scenarios. Three factors, i.e., switching from New Europe Driving Cycle (NEDC) to World Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) fuel consumption improvement of conventional vehicles, and credit per new energy vehicle, have a more significant impact on the new energy vehicle production than others. Under the minimum guarantee scenario, a 10% change in the above three factors will lead to a 2.5%, 1.5%, and 0.5% reduction in the production requirement for new energy vehicles.

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Achieving net-zero emissions in China’s passenger transport sector through regionally tailored mitigation strategies

Cited by 54 publications

References 45 publications

Incorporating Health Cobenefits into Province-Driven Climate Policy: A Case of Banning New Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Sales in China

Incorporating Health Cobenefits into Province-Driven Climate Policy: A Case of Banning New Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Sales in China

A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector

Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy

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