Achieving net-zero emissions through the reframing of UK national targets in the post-Paris Agreement era

Pye, Steve; Li, Francis G.N.; Price, James; Fais, Birgit

doi:10.1038/nenergy.2017.24

Cited by 129 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The incremental challenge for moving from a 2°C to 1.5°C mitigation pathway has not yet been formally defined by the UK government. However, modelling analysis confirms the basic intuition that much stronger mitigation efforts are needed than those currently prescribed by policy (Pye et al 2017;UK CCC 2017).…”

Section: Scaling-up Emission Reductions From Early Adoptersmentioning

confidence: 65%

The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation

et al. 2018

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This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5°C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5°C mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5°C mitigation. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated highefficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting experts' perceptions and a quantitative scalingup of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

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Section: Scaling-up Emission Reductions From Early Adoptersmentioning

confidence: 65%

The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation

et al. 2018

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“…is expected to result in demand growth. 32 100 EJ/yr is widely-cited as the global sustainable biomass production potential. 33 The evolution of the electricity system in a post-Paris world…”

Section: The Challenges Of Gigatonne-scale Cdrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural Evolution of the UK Electricity System in a below 2°C World

Daggash

Dowell

2019

Joule

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We employ a national-scale electricity system model to determine the least-cost transition necessary to meet a given CDR burden in the UK. The results show that, while sufficient in the medium-term, a system dominated by intermittent renewable energy technologies (IRES) cannot deliver zero-carbon power or CDR at the scale required in a cost-effective manner. The marginal value of IRES for climate change mitigation diminishes with time, especially in the context of the Paris Agreement. Deeper decarbonisation instead requires a resurgence of thermal generation from bioenergy and gas (both with carbon capture and storage), and nuclear. Such a system is inherently centralised and will require maintenance-if not improvement-of existing transmission and distribution infrastructure. Current policy direction however encourages the proliferation of renewables and decentralisation of energy services. To avoid locking the power system into a future where it cannot meet climate change mitigation ambitions, policy must recognise and adequately incentivise the new technologies (CCS) and services (CDR) necessary.

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“…This article does not explore emissions inertia grandfathering type constraints where current national per capita emissions converge to a global average at a point in the future, increasing what could be perceived as an equitable carbon budget (Nordhaus, 2015;Peters, Andrew, Solomon, & Friedlingstein, 2017;Pye, Li, Price, & Fais, 2017;Raupach et al, 2014). Scenario variants are used to account for uncertainty in climate mitigation policy choices, their implied constraints, immediate action vs delayed action, technology availability, and energy service demand responses to macroeconomic feedback.…”

Section: Scenario Definitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

et al. 2018

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The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party's successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party's then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80-95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO 2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5-10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in. Key policy insights. Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system. . The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors. . Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization. . Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3-5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80-95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of 'well below' 2°C and pursuing 1.5C. . Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO 2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.ARTICLE HISTORY

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Achieving net-zero emissions through the reframing of UK national targets in the post-Paris Agreement era

Cited by 129 publications

References 24 publications

The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation

The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation

Structural Evolution of the UK Electricity System in a below 2°C World

Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

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