Achieving zero covid is not easy, but the alternative is far worse

McKee, Martin

doi:10.1136/bmj.m3859

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Additionally, the operation of triage centers and respiratory safety clinics, restriction of visitors, and anticipative tests of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in health care workers (HCWs) in close contact with COVID-19 patients or routine monitoring of asymptomatic high-risk HCWs have been the main protective measures to prevent intra-hospital outbreaks in crowded hospital settings [3][4][5]. This strategy towards "zero COVID" eventually led to a decrease in social outdoor activities and an increase in time spent at home [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

No Change of Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Multicenter Time-Series Analyses

Kim

Jeon

et al. 2021

JoF

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Consolidated infection control measures imposed by the government and hospitals during COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp decline of respiratory viruses. Based on the issue of whether Pneumocystis jirovecii could be transmitted by airborne and acquired from the environment, we assessed changes in P. jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) cases in a hospital setting before and after COVID-19. We retrospectively collected data of PCP-confirmed inpatients aged ≥18 years (N = 2922) in four university-affiliated hospitals between January 2015 and June 2021. The index and intervention dates were defined as the first time of P. jirovecii diagnosis and January 2020, respectively. We predicted PCP cases for post-COVID-19 and obtained the difference (residuals) between forecasted and observed cases using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) models. Overall, the average of observed PCP cases per month in each year were 36.1 and 47.3 for pre- and post-COVID-19, respectively. The estimate for residuals in the ARIMA model was not significantly different in the total PCP-confirmed inpatients (7.4%, p = 0.765). The forecasted PCP cases by the BSTS model were not significantly different from the observed cases in the post-COVID-19 (−0.6%, 95% credible interval; −9.6~9.1%, p = 0.450). The unprecedented strict non-pharmacological interventions did not affect PCP cases.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

No Change of Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Multicenter Time-Series Analyses

Kim

Jeon

et al. 2021

JoF

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“…In a study of Kawasaki disease, a communicable disease that can cause high fever and coronary vasculitis in children, researchers found that compared to 2018 and 2019, the incidence of the disease in Taiwan decreased by 30% and 31% in 2020, respectively [ 27 ]. In terms of long-term benefits, in addition to limiting the presence of long COVID-19 (e.g., [ 28 ]), economic considerations are also discussed throughout the literature. In an analysis of 44 countries’ COVID-19 policies, König and Winkler concluded that “countries successfully applying the elimination strategy achieved better health outcomes than their peers without having to accept lower growth” [ 29 ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Advantages of the Zero-COVID-19 Strategy

Cheshmehzangi

McDonnell

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Introduction: To curb the COVID-19 pandemic, countries across the globe have adopted either a mitigation or anelimination policy, such as the zero-COVID-19 strategy. However, further research is needed to systematically investigate the advantages of the zero-COVID-19 strategy in the literature. To bridge the research gap, this study examines the zero-COVID-19 strategy in terms of its advantages as a global anti-pandemic framework. Methods: A literature review was conducted in PubMed, PsycINFO, and Scopus to locate academic articles that discussed the advantages of the zero-COVID-19 strategy. Braun and Clarke’s thematic analysis approach was adopted to guide the data analysis process. Results: The findings of our study show that the advantages of the zero-COVID-19 strategy range from short-term (e.g., limited virus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths), to medium-term (e.g., reduced presence of other infectious diseases), and long-term (e.g., low incidence of long COVID-19). While local residents mainly leverage these advantages, they also impact the global community (e.g., stable global supply of essentials, such as COVID-19 vaccines). Conclusions: COVID-19 is catastrophic, yet controllable. Our study examined the advantages of the zero-COVID-19 strategy from a nuanced perspective and discussed how these advantages benefit both the local and the global community in pandemic control and management. Future studies could investigate the shortcomings of the zero-COVID-19 strategy, especially its unintended consequences, such as adverse impacts on vulnerable populations’ mental health, so that society could more efficiently, economically, and empathetically capitalize on the potential of the zero-COVID-19 strategy for the betterment of personal and public health.

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“…Achieving zero-COVID is not easy, but the alternative is far worse ( McKee, 2020 ). It’s worth noting that China aggressively implemented the zero-COVID plan precisely because it understood the serious threat of asymptomatic spread.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymptomatic Transmissibility Calls for Implementing a Zero-COVID Strategy to End the Current Global Crisis

Zhang

Wang

Zhu

et al. 2022

Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol.

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges. A zero-COVID strategy is needed to end the crisis, but there is a lack of biological evidence. In the present study, we collected available data on SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 to perform a comprehensive comparative analysis and visualization. The study results revealed that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is low, whereas its death toll is high compared to SARS and MERS. Moreover, COVID-19 had a higher asymptomatic rate. In particular, COVID-19 exhibited unique asymptomatic transmissibility. Further, we developed a foolproof operating software in Python language to simulate COVID-19 spread in Wuhan, showing that the cumulative cases of existing asymptomatic spread would be over 100 times higher than that of only symptomatic spread. This confirmed the essential role of asymptomatic transmissibility in the uncontrolled global spread of COVID-19, which enables the necessity of implementing the zero-COVID policy. In conclusion, we revealed the triggering role of the asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID-19 in this unprecedented global crisis, which offers support to the zero-COVID strategy against the recurring COVID-19 spread.

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Achieving zero covid is not easy, but the alternative is far worse

Cited by 5 publications

References 5 publications

No Change of Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Multicenter Time-Series Analyses

No Change of Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Multicenter Time-Series Analyses

The Advantages of the Zero-COVID-19 Strategy

Asymptomatic Transmissibility Calls for Implementing a Zero-COVID Strategy to End the Current Global Crisis

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