SUMMARY The value of insulin and augmented histamine tests in predicting recurrence of duodenal ulcer within six to eight years after truncal vagotomy and drainage was assessed in a series of 500 consecutively and electively operated patients. Criteria of recurrence were established by a discriminative analysis of gastric acid secretion parameters. Recurrence was predicted with a probability of about 75 % in patients with dyspepsia, the proportion between recurrences and dyspeptic nonrecurrences being 1:1. The discriminatory ability of the insulin test was no better than that of the postoperative histamine test. Men with a preoperative PAO > 46X1 m-equiv/h had a risk of recurrence of 21 %, women with a PAO > 41.5 m-equiv/h, 28 %. Below these levels the risk was 5 and 1 % respectively, demonstrating that recurrence after vagotomy is related to the number of parietal cells before vagotomy. A rationale is provided for antrectomy and vagotomy in duodenal ulcer patients with a high number of parietal cells. Smith, 1967;Dinstl, 1969), presuming a relationship between preoperative acid secretion and the risk of recurrent ulcer after different operations.Clark, Murray, Slessor, and Wyllie (1964) found that the augmented histamine test was of no use in predicting the risk of recurrence after vagotomy, but this conclusion was founded on an incomplete follow up of only 149 men and women with 'complete vagotomies', including six recurrences. Cowley, Spencer, and Baron (1973) also found that the preoperative histamine test was useless in predicting recurrence in duodenal ulcer patients, selected by means of postvagotomy insulin test results.Previous studies by Kronborg (1971aKronborg ( , 1972aKronborg ( , 1973b demonstrated relationships between the risk of recurrence within three to four years after vagotomy for duodenal ulcer and both pre-and postoperative acid secretion. The present study is a re-