This paper addresses dynamic data-driven prediction of lean blowout (LBO) phenomena in confined combustion processes, which are prevalent in many physical applications (e.g., landbased and aircraft gas-turbine engines). The underlying concept is built upon pattern classification and is validated for LBO prediction with time series of chemiluminescence sensor data from a laboratory-scale swirl-stabilized dump combustor. The proposed method of LBO prediction makes use of the theory of symbolic dynamics, where (finite-length) time series data are partitioned to produce symbol strings that, in turn, generate a special class of probabilistic finite state automata (PFSA). These PFSA, called D-Markov machines, have a deterministic algebraic structure and their states are represented by symbol blocks of length D or less, where D is a positive integer. The D-Markov machines are constructed in two steps: (i) state splitting, i.e., the states are split based on their information contents, and (ii) state merging, i.e., two or more states (of possibly different lengths) are merged together to form a new state without any significant loss of the embedded information. The modeling complexity (e.g., number of states) of a D-Markov machine model is observed to be drastically reduced as the combustor approaches LBO. An anomaly measure, based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, is constructed to predict the proximity of LBO. The problem of LBO prediction is posed in a pattern classification setting and the underlying algorithms have been tested on experimental data at different extents of fuel-air premixing and fuel/air ratio. It is shown that, over a wide range of fuel-air premixing, D-Markov machines with D > 1 perform better as predictors of LBO than those with D = 1.Keywords: Data-driven Dynamics, Lean Blowout, Gas Turbine Combustor, Symbolic Dynamics, Probabilistic Finite State AutomataInternational journal of spray and combustion dynamics · Volume . 7 · Number . 3 . 2015 -pages 209 -242 209 *Corresponding author email: svs5464@psu.edu; axr2@psu.edu; achintya.mukho@gmail.com; sen.swarnendu@gmail.com
INTRODUCTIONUltra-lean combustion is commonly used for reduction of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and is susceptible to thermo-acoustic instabilities and lean blowout (LBO). It is well known that occurrence of LBO could be detrimental for operations of both land-based and aircraft gas turbine engines. For example, LBO in land-based gas turbines may lead to engine shutdown and subsequent re-ignition involves loss of productivity; similarly, LBO in aircraft gas turbines may cause loss of engine thrust especially if the fuel flow is suddenly reduced during a throttling operation, or if air flow reduction takes place at a much slower rate due to the moment of inertia of the compressor. In essence, a sudden decrease in the equivalence ratio may lead to LBO in gas turbine engines, which could have serious consequences. This phenomenon calls for a real-time prediction of LBO and adoption of appropriate measures to mitigate it. It is noted...