Active labour-market policies and output growth: Is there a causal relationship?

Goulas, Eleftherios; Zervoyianni, Athina

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.11.019

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Thus, regardless of the choice of output growth governed by data frequency, the predictive value of U.S. Non-Farm Payroll in output growth forecast is significant both for the in-sample and out-of-sample periods. Our results also align well with the findings of Course (2014) and Goulas and Zervoyianni (2018), although these studies are limited to in-sample predictability (that is, impact analysis).…”

Section: Main Findingssupporting

confidence: 89%

The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll and the out-of-sample predictability of output growth for over six decades

Salisu

Olaniran²

2022

Qual Quant

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We examine the predictive prowess of the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll (USNFP) for output growth in the U.S. covering over six decades from 1947 to 2021. Using two different measures of output growth (with Gross Domestic Product growth being used for the main analysis and growth in Industrial Production Index for robustness check), our predictability results show that the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll offers some predictive information for output growth in the U.S. and the out-of-sample forecast results equally attest to the superiority of the USNFP-based model over the model that ignores it. Our findings have implications for policy directions in the U.S. and various national and regional governments, multilateral agencies and investors whose economic and financial conditions are directly or indirectly linked with the U.S. economy.

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Section: Main Findingssupporting

confidence: 89%

The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll and the out-of-sample predictability of output growth for over six decades

Salisu

Olaniran²

2022

Qual Quant

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“…Economic voting and its impact on electoral campaigning and candidates' decisions has been a mainstay of political science (Hart 2016: 5-6), as well as political marketing practice (Kriesi -Müller 2013: 364). The effects of GDP change, unemployment rate and unemployment change were studied on the general level (Becher -Donnelly 2013) and for individual countries (Goulas et al 2019).…”

Section: Economic and Geographic Determinants Of Electoral Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Parameters vs Voting Behaviour in the Polish Presidential Election in 2020: Poviat level analysis

Madej

2023

Politics in Central Europe

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Voting behaviour is affected by various factors and the effect varies in individual countries. Economic and geographic factors are among the major criteria taken into account in electorate segmentation. The present study analyses them in the case of the Polish presidential election in 2020, held under the circumstances of strong polarisation within the society and controversies surrounding the rule-of-law and democratic standards. The present study analyses voter turnout and results of the second round of the election, focusing on the subregional level of poviats (counties). The analysis considers macroeconomic factors (such as GDP per capita, unemployment rate, average remuneration), financial condition of the local government (measured by budgetary revenues) and urbanisation (comparing the biggest cities to other counties). The findings confirm correlation between the macroeconomic parameters of the subregion and voter turnout. In the case of voting results, the hypotheses concerning macroeconomic parameters and the status of the biggest cities are confirmed, but there’s no evidence of correlation of the average remuneration on the poviat level and support for the centre-liberal candidate.

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“…In other countries, the emphasis is mainly on policies aimed at increasing the employability of the unemployed (these are primarily various retraining programs). Many studies analyse the approaches and efficiency of active (Goulas & Zervoyianni, 2018;Vishnevskaya, 2019;Vooren et al, 2019;Sahnoun & Abdennadher, 2018) and passive (Taracha & Mirowski, 2022;Sahnoun & Abdennadher, 2021;Ductor & Grechyna, 2020) labour market policies in multiple countries, including Western European countries (Kantová & Arltová, 2020;Orton & Green, 2019;Wapler et al, 2018;Karasova et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Active Labour Market Policy as a Component of Flexicurity

Přívarová

2022

EUrASEANs

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Active labor market policy includes measures to facilitate the return to work (training courses for the unemployed, incentives for unemployed to return to work, support for creating new jobs, etc.). Within the EU countries, we can observe some convergence in the activation of the unemployed. On the other hand, there are also significant differences resulting from the different performance of their labour markets as well as the heterogeneity of their institutional environments. The current paper aims to analyse these tendencies in the example of the following countries: Austria, France, United Kingdom and Spain. The results show that despite some differences, the most significant common factor of the active labour market policy in the selected EU member states is tightening the program participation criteria.

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Active labour-market policies and output growth: Is there a causal relationship?

Cited by 11 publications

References 53 publications

The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll and the out-of-sample predictability of output growth for over six decades

The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll and the out-of-sample predictability of output growth for over six decades

Economic Parameters vs Voting Behaviour in the Polish Presidential Election in 2020: Poviat level analysis

Active Labour Market Policy as a Component of Flexicurity

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