Adaptation after Extreme Flooding Events: Moving or Staying? The Case of the Ahr Valley in Germany

Abstract

More than 130 lives were lost in the 2021 heavy precipitation and flood event in the Ahr Valley, Germany, where large parts of the valley were destroyed. Afterwards, public funding of about 15 billion Euros has been made available for reconstruction. However, with people and settlements being in highly exposed zones, the core question that is not sufficiently addressed is whether affected people want to rebuild in the same place, or rather opt to move out. The paper explores this question and assesses motivations and reasons for moving or staying in the Ahr Valley. For this purpose, a household survey was conducted focusing on 516 flood-affected households. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results revealed that the ownership of the house or flat significantly influenced the decision of whether to stay or to leave. In addition, an attachment to the place and the belief that such extreme events occur very rarely influenced the decision to stay and rebuild. Age, gender and household income barely influenced the decision to stay or to move to a new place. Interestingly, results demonstrated that many respondents view settlement retreat and the relocation of critical infrastructures as important options to reduce risk, however, many still rebuild in the same place. These insights enable local policy and practice to better address the needs of the population in terms of whether to stay or move after such an extreme disaster.

Understanding flood risk in urban environments: spatial analysis of building vulnerability and hazard areas in the Lisbon metropolitan area

“…Their survey concluded that structural interventions like strengthening foundations and using water-resistant materials and floors were efficient in reducing the properties' damage rations regarding those who haven't taken measures. In the highly affected Arh Valley, Germany, one year after the event 75.6% of affected residents didn't plan to relocate, 5.9% were in the relocation process and only 14% have effectively relocated (Truedinger et al 2023), which means that rationally the residents are willing to cope with future floods, authorities as well and, as a result, houses must be adapted accordingly. These findings also suggest the need to invest in social vulnerability reduction and resilience strengthening (de Bruijn et al 2022).…”

Fragility Analysis Based on Damaged Bridges during the 2021 Flood in Germany

“…Intermodal transport was also affected, having destroyed railway lines, for example, in the Ahr valley, where the reconstruction of the railway is expected to last several years [46]. Furthermore, the failure of the warning chain and the damage to critical infrastructure highlighted the need for improving disaster management and infrastructure planning [47].…”

Risk Social Contracts: Exploring Responsibilities Through the Lens of Citizens Affected by Flooding in Germany in 2021

“…An online survey was conducted targeting a wider spatial area. In contrast to other studies on this flooding event [47,58], this survey is developed primarily using open questions allowing citizens to express themselves, their experiences, and opinions -in other words, to give them a voice. The questions aimed at gaining an understanding of the citizens' perspectives on the flood event in the context of early warning, preparedness, and response, but also their opinion on arisen issues and possible solutions for the future as well as their idea on the division of responsibilities.…”