Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

Abstract

We study heterogeneity in the relationship between temperature and mortality across U.S. climate regions and its implications for climate adaptation. Using exogenous variation in temperature and data on all elderly Medicare beneficiaries from 1992 -2011, we show that the mortality effect of hot days is much larger in cool ZIP codes than in warm ones and that the opposite is true for cold days. We attribute this heterogeneity to historical climate adaptation. As one adaptive mechanism, air conditioning penetration explains nearly all of the regional heterogeneity in heatdriven morality but not cold-driven mortality. Combining these results with projected changes in local temperature distributions by the end of the century, we show that failure to incorporate climate heterogeneity in temperature effects can lead to mortality predictions that are wrong in sign for both cool and warm climates. Allowing regions to adapt to future climate according to the degree of climate adaptation currently observed across climates yields mortality impacts of climate change that are much lower than those estimated without allowing for adaptation, and possibly even negative.

Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations

“…In an extension, Schlenker et al (2013) show the importance of accounting both for lower average yields as well as improved heat tolerance in estimating the long-run effects of climate change. Heutel, Miller, and Molitor (2017) take a similar approach in estimating the mortality effect of temperature fluctuations in the US by allowing the impact of different temperatures to vary depending on climate. They find evidence for heterogeneity in the marginal effect of both hot and cold days, with evidence for adaptation at both ends of the temperature distribution (i.e.…”

Climate Change and Occupational Health: Are There Limits to Our Ability to Adapt?

“…For example, as the expected number of hot days rises, the benefits from purchasing an air conditioner rise, which is why people in warmer climates are more likely to have residential air conditioning than people in cooler climates. Differences in the adoption of air conditioning can explain almost all of the differential effects of high temperatures on mortality across time and space (Barreca et al 2016;Heutel, Miller, and Molitor 2017). But the interaction between temperature distributions and mitigation decisions is complex and does not necessarily imply less detrimental effects of high temperatures where high temperatures are common.…”

“…1 An important finding from much of the economics research on the effect of temperature on health is that while both high and low temperatures have adverse health effects, people have demonstrated a substantial capacity to adapt to their climates. One piece of evidence that adaptation has occurred is that hot days have less severe effects in warmer climates than in cooler climates, largely because the higher frequency of hot days in warmer climates has led to greater investments in air cooling technology in these places (Barreca et al 2016;Heutel, Miller, and Molitor 2017). Given that air conditioning technology appears to be the main adaptive mechanism, though, workers' capacity for adapting to a higher distribution of temperatures remains unclear.…”

“…The literature on the health effects of temperature has grown in recent years and includesBarreca (2012),Barreca et al (2016), Burgess et al(2014),Deschenes and Greenstone (2011),Deschenes and Moretti (2009),Heutel, Miller, and Molitor (2017),Karlsson and Ziebarth (2017),Mullins and White (2018), andWhite (2017). Much of this research focuses on the mortality effects of temperature, though some of the more recent studies consider the effects of temperature on non-mortality health outcomes as well.…”

Energy Saving Can Kill: Evidence from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

“…Previously, many studies have documented temperature-health relationship and the role of adaptation in the U.S. (e.g., Deschênes and Moretti, 2009;Deschênes and Greenstone, 2011;Barreca et al, 2016;Heutel et al, 2017), Germany (Karlson and Ziebarth, 2018), India (e.g., Burgess et al, 2017), China (e.g., Yu et al, 2019) and multiple countries (Gasparrini et al 2015;Carleton et al, 2018;and Geruso and Spears, 2018). However, a key limitation in these studies is that there often lacks exogenous variation in the adaptive measures (i.e., use of air conditioner or electricity consumption).…”