Adaptation in U.S. Corn Belt increases resistance to soil carbon loss with climate change

Abstract

Increasing the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) has agronomic benefits and the potential to mitigate climate change. previous regional predictions of Soc trends under climate change often ignore or do not explicitly consider the effect of crop adaptation (i.e., changing planting dates and varieties). We used the DayCent biogeochemical model to examine the effect of adaptation on SOC for corn and soybean production in the U.S. corn Belt using climate data from three models. Without adaptation, yields of both corn and soybean tended to decrease and the decomposition of Soc tended to increase leading to a loss of Soc with climate change compared to a baseline scenario with no climate change. With adaptation, the model predicted a substantially higher crop yield. the increase in yields and associated carbon input to the Soc pool counteracted the increased decomposition in the adaptation scenarios, leading to similar SOC stocks under different climate change scenarios. consequently, we found that crop management adaptation to changing climatic conditions strengthen agroecosystem resistance to SOC loss. However, there are differences spatially in SOC trends. the northern part of the region is likely to gain Soc while the southern part of the region is predicted to lose Soc. Soil organic matter is essential for maintaining soil health and sustaining plant growth. Loss of soil organic matter often leads to degradation of soil quality 1. It also constitutes the largest terrestrial organic carbon (C) pool (~ 2,400 Pg C in top 2 m soil). This soil organic C (SOC) pool is three times greater than the amount of C in the atmosphere 2. An increase or decrease of C in soils by only a small percent represents a substantial C sink or source for atmospheric CO 2. Studies have been conducted to predict SOC of croplands under climate change 3-5. However, crop management changes with adaptation to future climate 6-9 (such as changes in varieties and planting dates) were ignored in most studies. Thus, we carried out a regional study to assess the impact of projected climate change and elevated CO 2 on SOC in agricultural systems with management adaptation. A change in SOC is a result of the net effect of the changes in SOC decomposition rates (the main C outflow) and C inputs from plants 10 (main C inflow). In a warmer climate, the higher temperature could increase the decomposition rate in both the short and long term 11. Decomposition will also be sensitive to increases or decreases in precipitation 10 predicted by climate models 8. Carbon input is mainly from root and surface residue litter that is not removed from the system through harvest, grazing or burning. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO 2 all affect this input through plant growth and production 6. These climatic changes are also likely to affect management practices in the future 7. Although systemic management changes are possible that can limit the impact of climate change, such as moving from dryland to irrigated systems, smaller adjustments i...

Modeling Yield, Biogenic Emissions, and Carbon Sequestration in Southeastern Cropping Systems With Winter Carinata

“…While this study area was selected to minimize frost risk (Alam and Dwivedi, 2019), and the effects of frost can be mitigated using best management practices (Mulvaney et al, 2018;Seepaul et al, 2019b), this model limitation may still result in some overestimation of the production potential from this region. A newer version of DayCent that dynamically predicts crop phenology stages, explicitly simulates leaf area index, and represents crop mortality from frost is under testing (Zhang et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2020b), but was not readily available at the time of this study.…”

“…DayCent is a processbased model that simulates carbon, N, and water cycling in natural and agricultural ecosystems on a daily timestep as a function of soils, climate, and management (Del Grosso et al, 2002). DayCent has previously been used to model a variety of other oilseed crops including canola (He et al, 2021), sunflower (Gryze et al, 2010), and soybean (Zhang et al, 2020a). It has also been used extensively in bioenergy assessments to predict energy crop yields and associated changes in SOC storage and N 2 O emissions (Field et al, 2018).…”

Contributions of plant breeding to soil carbon storage: Retrospect and prospects

“…New approaches in high‐throughput phenotyping, multi‐scale modeling and environmental monitoring are expected to accelerate crop improvement for climate resilience (Cooper & Messina, 2022). Farmers may adapt to climate change by planting a longer‐season variety at an earlier date and/or adopting no‐till, which are predicted to at least partially counteract yield declines and soil organic C losses in the US Corn Belt (Liu & Basso, 2020; Zhang et al., 2020b). Farmers may also increase artificial drainage in poorly drained and/or increasingly wet environments (Morton et al., 2015; Roesch‐McNally et al., 2017).…”

“…Climate change threatens crop yields and soil organic C stocks in the absence of adaptation (Lugato et al., 2021; Ray et al., 2019; Walthall et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2020b). Historically, adaptation of crop cultivars to changing environmental conditions has been achieved through plant breeding driven by testing and selection in diverse environments over many years (Snowdon et al., 2021).…”

Challenges and Opportunities for Cover Crop Mediated Soil Water Use Efficiency Enhancements in Temperate Rain-Fed Cropping Systems: A Review

“…The economic impacts of climate change are expected to have profound consequences for U.S. and global agricultural markets [10]. Environmental stresses associated with Land 2023, 12, 988 2 of 14 climate change are expected to diminish U.S. agricultural production [11] and by extension the export of virtual water [9,12]. Significant reductions in the export of virtual water, which is the combined total of water needed in each step of the agricultural production process, is likely to exacerbate global food insecurity [12] particularly in arid and semi-arid regions [12,13].…”