Adaptation Strategies for Rice Cultivation Under Climate Change in Central Vietnam

Shrestha, Sangam

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-09746-6_6

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…An optimizing farm-level linear programming (FLLP) model was developed for the current study. The FLLP is based on a farm-level dynamic linear programming model which is described in detail in Shrestha (2004). Modified versions of FLLP have been used in a number of farm-level analyses of Irish Agriculture (Shrestha & Hennessy 2006, 2008; Shrestha et al .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Irish farms under climate change – is there a regional variation on farm responses?

et al. 2014

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The current paper aims to determine regional impacts of climate change on Irish farms examining the variation in farm responses. A set of crop growth models were used to determine crop and grass yields under a baseline scenario and a future climate scenario. These crop and grass yields were used along with farm-level data taken from the Irish National Farm Survey in an optimizing farm-level (farm-level linear programming) model, which maximizes farm profits under limiting resources. A change in farm net margins under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario was taken as a measure to determine the effect of climate change on farms. The growth models suggested a decrease in cereal crop yields (up to 9%) but substantial increase in yields of forage maize (up to 97%) and grass (up to 56%) in all regions. Farms in the border, midlands and south-east regions suffered, whereas farms in all other regions generally fared better under the climate change scenario used in the current study. The results suggest that there is a regional variability between farms in their responses to the climate change scenario. Although substituting concentrate feed with grass feeds is the main adaptation on all livestock farms, the extent of such substitution differs between farms in different regions. For example, large dairy farms in the south-east region adopted total substitution of concentrate feed while similar dairy farms in the south-west region opted to replace only 0·30 of concentrate feed. Farms in most of the regions benefitted from increasing stocking rate, except for sheep farms in the border and dairy farms in the south-east regions. The tillage farms in the mid-east region responded to the climate change scenario by shifting arable production to beef production on farms.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Irish farms under climate change – is there a regional variation on farm responses?

et al. 2014

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“…From the evaluation results for before and after corrections, the R 2 values vary from 0.75 to 0.92, which indicates satisfactory performance in downscaling rainfall to the watershed scale (note: referring to Wilby et al (), the daily rainfall is the most problematic daily variable to downscale. Therefore, it is very difficult to obtain a high R 2 value (Shrestha et al, ; Yassin and Mawada, ). It is generally considered that temperature has a better correlation in comparison to rainfall in climate models.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In detail, the HadGEM3–RA model has a horizontal grid resolution of 0.44 o × 0.44 o and complies with the protocol of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the Asia region (Giorgi et al, ). For Vietnam, the growth of population and industry will contribute high concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at the end of the twenty‐first century (Shrestha et al, ). Therefore, RCP 8.5 which is characterized by high concentration of GHGs (Riahi et al, ) and RCP 4.5 which is a stabilization scenario (Thomson and co‐authors, ), were selected for this study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of Flood Damage under Potential Climate Change Impacts in Central Vietnam

Dau

Kuntiyawichai

Plermkamon

2017

Irrigation and Drainage

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The quantification of economic losses due to floods becomes necessary in flood management. In this context, the study aims to assess insights into flood damage under potential impacts of climate change in central Vietnam. The HadGEM3–RA Regional Climate Model (RCM) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios was used in this study. A bias correction technique for adjusting RCM simulations was applied to correct the climate input data for systematic statistical deviations from observed data. In addition, a coupling of the HEC‐HMS and HEC‐RAS hydrodynamic models and the flood damage reduction analysis model (HEC‐FDA) was applied to assess the level of flood hazard and damage existing in central Vietnam. The findings showed that the weather in central Vietnam will be warmer in the future with the average temperature increasing from 0.2 to 0.8°C, and annual rainfall will increase from 3.5 to 6.8%. The water level and runoff will also increase from 0.1 to 0.3 m and 10–30%, respectively. Flood damage was estimated to be US$18.8–20.7 million from the 2020s to the 2080s. Finally, the findings obtained are useful for the decision‐making process in flood management and economic development in Vietnam. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…From the results of the 10-year run, the first 3 years and last 3 years were discarded to minimize the starting and terminal effects of linear programming (Ahmad 1997; Shrestha 2004). Accordingly, the model outputs from the middle 4 years were averaged to provide the final results for both the baseline scenario and the climate change scenario runs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of greening measures and flat rate regional payments of the Common Agricultural Policy on Scottish beef and sheep farms

et al. 2015

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SUMMARYThe latest Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms could bring substantial changes to Scottish farming communities. Two major components of this reform package, an introduction of environmental measures into the Pillar 1 payments and a move away from historical farm payments towards regionalized area payments, would have a significant effect on altering existing support structures for Scottish farmers, as it would for similar farm types elsewhere in Europe where historic payments are used. An optimizing farm-level model was developed to explore how Scottish beef and sheep farms might be affected by the greening and flat rate payments under the current CAP reforms. Nine different types of beef and sheep farms were identified and detailed biophysical and financial farm-level data for these farm types were used to parameterize the model. Results showed that the greening measures of the CAP did not have much impact on net margins of most of the beef and sheep farm businesses, except for ‘Beef Finisher’ farm types where the net margins decreased by 3%. However, all farm types were better off adopting the greening measures than not qualifying for the greening payments through non-compliance with the measures. The move to regionalized farm payments increased the negative financial impact of greening on most of the farms but it was still substantially lower than the financial sacrifice of not adopting greening measures. Results of maximizing farm net margin, under a hypothetical assumption of excluding farm payments, showed that in most of the mixed (sheep and cattle) and beef suckler cattle farms the optimum stock numbers predicted by the model were lower than actual figures on farm. When the regionalized support payments were allocated to each farm, the proportion of the mixed farms that would increase their stock numbers increased whereas this proportion decreased for beef suckler farms and no impact was predicted in sheep farms. Also under the regionalized support payments, improvements in profitability were found in mixed farms and sheep farms. Some of the specialized beef suckler farms also returned a profit when CAP support was added.

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Adaptation Strategies for Rice Cultivation Under Climate Change in Central Vietnam

Cited by 14 publications

References 39 publications

Irish farms under climate change – is there a regional variation on farm responses?

Irish farms under climate change – is there a regional variation on farm responses?

Quantification of Flood Damage under Potential Climate Change Impacts in Central Vietnam

Impacts of greening measures and flat rate regional payments of the Common Agricultural Policy on Scottish beef and sheep farms

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