Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality

Abstract

Background:Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios.Objectives:This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments.Methods:We estimated impacts for 2070–2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty.Results:The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty.Conclusions:Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634

Temporal Trends in Heat-Related Mortality: Implications for Future Projections

“…Other studies using a range of methods have reported a reduction by between 20% and 80% in future impacts under various adaptation assumptions [50,52,53]. A recent comprehensive analysis in 14 European cities applied six different adaptation assumptions for future projections, and concluded that uncertainties related to adaptation were generally larger than those related to climate models and emission scenarios [54].…”

The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change

“…For the projected change in heat related mortality, long-term adaptation needs to be considered [42,43] and several different methods exists, to assess long-term adaptation to heat stress for the future [44]. Estimates of long-term adaption for long-lasting heat waves, however, are associated with large uncertainties, given the fact that heat waves with a duration of more than 5 days occured only once or less during the reference period.…”

Health consequences of climate change in Bangladesh: An overview of the evidence, knowledge gaps and challenges

“…Research conducted worldwide indicates that public health consequences associated with cyclones can include: infectious diseases, psycho-social effects, displacement, damage to healthcare infrastructure, disruption of public health services, transformation of ecosystems, social dislocation, loss of jobs and livelihoods and economic crisis (Shultz et al, 2005). One of the major direct public health risks imposed by climate change is increased heat-related mortality and morbidity (Gosling et al, 2017;Hajat, Vardoulakis, Heaviside, & Eggen, 2014). This is a major concern for Asian megacities such as Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh (Kovats & Akhtar, 2008).…”