Adaptations Assessment on the Impacts of Flooding Under Current Condition and Climate Change Scenario, Case Study: Centini Village, Indonesia

Abstract

Reducing community vulnerability to flooding is increasingly important given predicted intensive flood events in many parts of the world. We built a community vulnerability model to explore the effectiveness of a range of proactive and reactive adaptations to reduce community vulnerability to flood. The model consists of floods, victims, housings, responses, savings, expenditure and income sub models. We explore the robustness of adaptations under current conditions and under a range of future climate change scenarios. We present results of this model for a case study of Centini Village in Lamongan Municipality, Indonesia, which is highly vulnerable to the impacts of annual small-scale and infrequent extreme floods. We compare 11 proactive adaptations using indicators of victims, damage/losses and recovery process to reflect the level of vulnerability. We find that reforestation and flood infrastructure redevelopment are the most effective proactive adaptations for minimising vulnerability to flood under current condition. Under climate change scenario, the floods are predicted to increase 17% on the average and 5% on the maximum measurements. The increasing floods result reforestation is the only effective adaptations in the future under climate change scenario.

Green and grey infrastructures approaches in flood reduction

“…The river then discharges the water from west to east. Pamungkas et al (2017a, 2017b) illustrated that the water of the Kedurus River will flow into the Surabaya River and is then diverted into two main rivers flowing to the sea (Kali Jagir in the east and Kali Mas in the north) (Figures 4 to 6).…”

“…Besides flood-related challenges, the availability of freshwater has also been a major concern in this area, particularly in the dry seasons. Pamungkas et al (2017a, 2017b) highlighted flooding and freshwater scarcity as Surabaya’s two main water-related problems which have significantly impacted the community.…”

Vulnerability assessment of Balikpapan (Indonesia) for climate change-induced urban flooding

“…Even though the aspect of vulnerability has been studied since the 1980s and is one of the most important ideas in disaster risk management, more research is still needed, particularly to guide the assessment process (Pamungkas, 2012). There is a need for a better understanding of connections between vulnerability components such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.…”