Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation

Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Joshi, Pramod Kumar; Ingram, John; Gupta, R.K.

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2004.07.006

Cited by 213 publications

(135 citation statements)

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“…The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP; including regions of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) is challenged by increasing food production. Any perturbation in agriculture will considerably affect the food systems of the region and increase the vulnerability of the resource-poor population (e.g., Aggarwal et al 2004;Kahlown et al 2007). The HKH stores a considerable amount of water within its extensive glacier cover (about 16 300 km 2 ), while lower-altitude areas are very dry.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment

Soncini

Bocchiola

Confortola

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrometeorology

104

124

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The mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayas (HKH) are considered Earth's ''third pole,'' and water from there plays an essential role for downstream populations. The dynamics of glaciers in Karakoram are complex, and in recent decades the area has experienced unchanged ice cover, despite rapid decline elsewhere in the world (the Karakoram anomaly). Assessment of future water resources and hydrological variability under climate change in this area is greatly needed, but the hydrology of these high-altitude catchments is still poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on a particular watershed, the Shigar River with the control section at Shigar (about 7000 km 2 ), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from two major glaciers (Baltoro and Biafo). Hydrological, meteorological, and glaciological data gathered during 3 years of field campaigns (2011-13) are used to set up a hydrological model, providing a depiction of instream flows, snowmelt, and ice cover thickness. The model is used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100, via climate projections provided by three state-of-the-art global climate models used in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Under all RCPs, future flows are predicted to increase until midcentury and then to decrease, but remaining mostly higher than control run values. Snowmelt is projected to occur earlier, while the ice melt component is expected to increase, with ice thinning considerably and even disappearing below 4000 m MSL until 2100.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment

Soncini

Bocchiola

Confortola

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrometeorology

104

124

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“…With one of the highest population growth rates in India and without concerted efforts to enhance agricultural productivity (MoA 2015), the gap between consumption and production is poised to widen in this densely populated state of 104 million people (MoA 2015). Furthermore, the regions that currently supply wheat to Bihar, such as the Northwestern state of Punjab where wheat yields averaged 4.79 MT ha −1 over the same period (MoA 2015), have comparatively little scope for boosting yields further (Aggarwal et al 2004). Exacerbating this scenario, there are strong imperatives in Northwestern India to reduce water resource utilization in agriculture in order to arrest the dramatic declines in groundwater levels that are undermining the sustainability and environmental footprint of production (Humphreys et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Exacerbating this scenario, there are strong imperatives in Northwestern India to reduce water resource utilization in agriculture in order to arrest the dramatic declines in groundwater levels that are undermining the sustainability and environmental footprint of production (Humphreys et al 2010). In recognition of the pervasive yield gaps that characterize the Eastern IGP along with a wealth of under-developed water resources (Aggarwal et al 2004;DoA 2008), Indian policy makers have turned their attention to meeting both state-level and national food needs through intensification in the East through programs such as 'Bringing the Green Revolution to Eastern India' (BGREI; http://bgrei-rkvy.nic.in). Nevertheless, a variety of factors contribute to the currently low yields in the East.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growing the service economy for sustainable wheat intensification in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: lessons from custom hiring services for zero-tillage

2016

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Zero-tillage (ZT) is a proven technology for enhancing wheat productivity and, hence, food security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, while reducing production costs. However, very few farmers possess their own tractors much less the specialized seed drills required to implement the technology. As a consequence, adoption of ZT largely hinges on affordable access to custom hire services. In Eastern India, the service economy for ZT is expanding, but remains in the early stages of growth. ZT service businesses remain largely uncharacterized, and related business dynamics poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap and derive recommendations for an efficient targeting of public sector support for those service providers (SPs) who are poised for growth, we identified factors that influence ZT entrepreneurship, encompassing new business formation and the resulting scale of the enterprise. We used data from a census of 270 ZT SPs in Bihar, as documented by the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA). To identify determinants of engaging in ZT service provision, the data were pooled with those of 1000 randomly-selected wheat farmers located in the same districts. We applied Heckman's two-step estimation procedure to derive unbiased estimates of determinants of the scale of the ZT service businesses. ZT SPs are generally larger, tractor-owning farmers who have taken up service provision as a side business since 2010 or later. Only 8.3 % of the surveyed farm households owned a tractor, demonstrating the importance of service provision for accessing ZT and other mechanization technologies. ZT SPs expanded their businesses considerably from 2011 to 2012 to an average total of 20 clients and 50 ha serviced per SP. However, larger areas were primarily achieved by servicing larger client farms. Welleducated farmers with larger land holdings and extensive social networks are most likely to become ZT SPs. However, among this stratum, the relatively smaller scale farmers were most likely to provide services at a sizeable scale. To efficiently accelerate the spread of ZT technology, we conclude that these smaller-scale tractor-owning farmers are the most sensible targets for purchase subsidies on ZT drills as well as the primary audience for business development training. Since a considerable fraction of the ZT area expansion resulted from service provision to larger client farms, there is a need to develop business models that enhance the social inclusiveness of ZT services by reducing the transaction costs of reaching smallholders.

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“…However, securing these gains is becoming a challenge in the context of soaring food and fuel prices, volatile markets, global economic downturn, diversion of human capital from agriculture, soil degradation, shrinking farm sizes, depletion of water resources and overarching effects of climate change (Ambast, Tyagi, & Paul, 2006;Humphreys et al, 2010;Jat et al, 2012). Climate change is projected to lead to uncertain onset of monsoons and more frequent extremes of weather (Aggarwal, Joshi, Ingram, & Gupta, 2004). Also, other competitive sectors and schemes such as 'MNREGA' (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) have diverted farm labour.…”

Section: Participatory Research and Mobilization Of Young Farmers In mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the interactions, farmer groups showed keen interest in new-generation technologies to resolve problems of seeding rice with less labour, precision in levelling to save irrigation water, residue management towards improving soil fertility and water-holding capacity, eliminating tillage to save on fuel, energy and water, and improving nutrient-use efficiency. All of these actions enhance rural livelihoods by increasing farmers' incomes, thus reducing vulnerability (Aggarwal et al, 2004), and enabling adaptation benefits such as ability to respond rapidly and cost effectively to delayed and unpredictable start of the growing season, or minimizing crop losses during dry periods.…”

Section: Participatory Research and Mobilization Of Young Farmers In mentioning

confidence: 99%

Farmers, food and climate change: ensuring community-based adaptation is mainstreamed into agricultural programmes

Wright

Vermeulen

Laganda

et al. 2014

Climate and Development

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Climate change creates widespread risks for food production. As climate impacts are often locally specific, it is imperative that large-scale initiatives to support smallholder farmers consider local priorities and integrate lessons from successful autonomous adaptation efforts. This article explores how large-scale programmes for smallholder adaptation to climate change might link effectively with community-led adaptation initiatives. Drawing on experiences in Bangladesh, Mozambique, Uganda and India, this article identifies key success factors and barriers for considering local priorities, capacities and lessons in large-scale adaptation programmes. It highlights the key roles of extension services and farmers' organizations as mechanisms for linking between national-level and community-level adaptation, and a range of other success factors which include participative and locally driven vulnerability assessments, tailoring of adaptation technologies to local contexts, mapping local institutions and working in partnership across institutions. Barriers include weak governance, gaps in the regulatory and policy environment, high opportunity costs, low literacy and underdeveloped markets. The article concludes that mainstreaming climate adaptation into large-scale agricultural initiatives requires not only integration of lessons from community-based adaptation, but also the building of inclusive governance to ensure smallholders can engage with those policies and processes affecting their vulnerability.

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Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation

Cited by 213 publications

References 3 publications

Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment

Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment

Growing the service economy for sustainable wheat intensification in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: lessons from custom hiring services for zero-tillage

Farmers, food and climate change: ensuring community-based adaptation is mainstreamed into agricultural programmes

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