Adapting to a Foggy Future Along Trans‐Arctic Shipping Routes

Abstract

Rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice extends the area of open ocean for new trans‐Arctic shipping routes. However, the projected routes may be too optimistic in terms of savings in shipping costs from shortened trans‐Arctic distances as they do not consider the increased sea fog frequency (SFF) over areas of the retreating sea ice. We show that delays due to sea fog can be 1–4 days, about 23%–27% along the Northwest Passage and 4%–11% along the Northern Sea Route than previous estimated. We design a route based on the projected sea‐ice extent and SFF. The new route can reduce the sailing time by 0.3–1 day by detouring the routes with lighter impacts of sea fog. More importantly the new route will lower the risk of catastrophic accidents compared to the shortest route and saves the additional costs due to unscheduled port calls.

Changes in the Arctic Traffic Occupancy and Their Connection to Sea Ice Conditions from 2015 to 2020

“…With approximately 20-30% of Arctic routes experiencing frequent sea fog, the travel time increases 23-27% and 4-11% along the NWP and Northern Sea Route. Furthermore, the safety of navigation encounters heightened challenges near ice margins, with an expected escalation of sea fog under the backdrop of global warming [18]. During Arctic winters, intensified winds and waves, combined with subzero temperatures, can increase the risk of ship superstructures icing, potentially resulting in numerous accidents and shipwrecks [39].…”

“…These studies can be broadly classified into two main categories according to distinct research objectives. The first category typically explores Arctic navigational opportunities [14][15][16][17][18]. Utilizing natural and ship factors, the investigation of ships' feasibility to navigate through the Arctic waters safely, referred to as the Arctic navigational opportunities [19], facilitates strategic planning of shorter and less risky routes tailored to different ships.…”

Impacts of Arctic Sea Fog on the Change of Route Planning and Navigational Efficiency in the Northeast Passage during the First Two Decades of the 21st Century

“…SFF is defined as the percentage of foggy days in each month, where we classify foggy days as those with visibility of less than 1 km, ensuring that sea fog has a sufficient effect on the deceleration of the vessels [24]. The SFF data are derived from Arctic sea fog data based on the Polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (PWRF) with 6 hourly atmospheric fields from ERA-Interim reanalysis data sets (PWRF-ERA) provided by the Ocean University of China, with a spatial resolution of 50 km.…”

“…There are no accurate quantitative results on the impact of sea fog on the speed of ships internationally but a linear approximation exists to quantify the deceleration effect of fog density on safe speeds [23]. Similarly, Song et al categorized SFF into four levels, each corresponding to different deceleration coefficients (ζ) [24]. In this study, we determine a new safe speed V I, F , which is utilized in calculating the fastest route considering both sea ice and sea fog (Route IF):…”

“…Nam et al attempted to quantify the deceleration effects of different Arctic weather conditions and apply them in NEP route simulation, but failed to adequately address the influence of sea fog on route selection and navigational efficiency [23]. Song et al explored how sea fog frequency (SFF) affects the sailing time of a predetermined shortest route based on Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) sea ice data, but their analysis lacked further analysis of specific routes [24].…”