I. AbstractComputational uncertainty quantification of multidimensional dynamical systems is investigated through an approach based upon a finite difference solution of the Liouville equation, which governs the evolution of the response conditional density function. The computational performance of the numerical solution is improved by (i) quadrature-based sampling of the random input parameters and (ii) a time-adaptive method for determining the computational grid in the space of random response variables. The proposed intrusive approach is applied to four test problems including the uncertainty quantification of a spring-mass system, Van der Pol Oscillator, linear double spring-mass system and the flow induced vibrations of an airfoil containing cubic nonlinearity in an incompressible flow. Comparisons of the numerical solutions obtained from both fixed and adaptive time-varying grids with analytical solutions (when they exist) and Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate the capability of the proposed methodology for the accurate prediction of the long time statistics of dynamical systems of moderate dimension. When compared to the fixed grid solution, the adaptive grid solution demonstrates considerable reduction in computational costs for equivalent accuracy.
II. IntroductionMeasurement of the effect of randomness in computational model input parameters on output variables is obtained through the process of computational uncertainty quantification. The results produced by such analysis play a crucial role in the quantitative reliability assessment of the system. The computational uncertainty analysis of a computational model as a system is studied through the propagation of model input uncertainty through the computational model. This analysis gives the statistics of the model output which are essential for determining the probability of undesirable events (output) and consequently reliability assessment of the physical system being modeled. Computational uncertainty quantification (CUQ) is used for wide variety of engineering applications such as computational fluid dynamics, 6 chemical systems, 9 scientific computing 10 and structural mechanics. 11 Moreover, in the Aerospace engineering literature, CUQ has been applied to problems such as the prediction of limit cycle oscillations, 1 transonic flutter, 31 hypersonic aerothermoelastic analysis 24 and rocket simulation. 23 According to the classification proposed by Melchers 13, 14 there are three types of uncertainties including aleatory, epistemic uncertainty and uncertainty due to human error. In this work only aleatory uncertainty is considered. Unlike epistemic uncertainty, which is due to the lack of knowledge about the true physics of the system being modeled, aleatory or irreducible uncertainty is concerned with inherent parameter randomness in the system.Computational uncertainty quantification approaches which deal with aleatory uncertainty can be classified into two major groups including intrusive or non-intrusive methods. "Black box" treatment...