Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood

Abstract

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy.

The adaptive capacity of institutions in Canada, Argentina, and Chile to droughts and floods

“…The federal government predominates over all other formal organizations. There are few instruments responding to the uncertain problem of climate change and flood (Hurlbert and Gupta 2016). A disagreement on science, values, and norms prevented one reservoir project from proceeding (Clarvis and Allan 2013).…”

“…Alberta has a high variety score with instruments and institutions responding to climate change and d&f (see Fletcher et al 2012;Hurlbert and Gupta 2016) and like Saskatchewan has multiple actors at multiple levels. In the past, Alberta developed more irrigated agriculture achieving learning (A5).…”

“…A multitude of government, civil society, non-governmental, and private organizations have programs to assist agricultural producers to respond to d&f (see Hurlbert and Gupta 2016;Fletcher et al 2012). A 'Growing Forward' program alleviates changes in farm income as a result of d&f; government disaster assistance payments help homeowners rebuild after floods; and a host of suasive and managerial instruments assist producers and their communities plan for, and respond to, d&f (Hurlbert and Gupta 2016).…”

“…Starting from the top and moving in a clockwise direction, Saskatchewan lacks instruments relating to climate change and adaptation. Specific instruments respond to d&f and economic stability (see Hurlbert and Gupta 2016;Fletcher et al 2012). Instruments to address flood are unutilized, building standards and codes do not account for climate change; and a coordinated and integrated drought research and planning programme is lacking at the regional (provincial) and the national level (Hurlbert et al 2015b).…”

Resilience unpacked – framing of ‘uncertainty’ and ‘adaptability’ in long-term flood risk management strategies for London and Rotterdam

“…Third, although deep uncertainties make it difficult to foresee the outcomes of any planning or policy attempt, the resilience narrative also includes a positive connotation: 'adaptability' or building 'adaptive capacity' is seen as promising solution to deal with the unknown (Fikret Berkes, 2007;Davoudi, 2016;Folke, Hahn, Olsson, & Norberg, 2005;Hurlbert & Gupta, 2016;Mcevoy, Fünfgeld, & Bosomworth, 2013). In relation to flood risk management, policy-makers can influence the adaptability of the social-ecological system in two ways: they can influence the process as well as the content of policy strategies.…”