Adaptive management in crop pest control in the face of climate variability: an agent-based modeling approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT. Climate changes are occurring rapidly at both regional and global scales. Farmers are faced with the challenge of developing new agricultural practices to help them to cope with unpredictable changes in environmental, social, and economic conditions. Under these conditions, adaptive management requires a farmer to learn by monitoring provisional strategies and changing conditions, and then incrementally adjust management practices in light of new information. Exploring adaptive management will increase our understanding of the underlying processes that link farmer societies with their environment across space and time, while accounting for the impacts of an unpredictable climate. Here, we assessed the impacts of temperature and crop price, as surrogates for climate and economic changes, on farmers' adaptive management in crop pest control using an agent-based modeling approach. Our model simulated an artificial society of farmers that relied on field data obtained in the Ecuadorian Andes. Farmers were represented as heterogeneous autonomous agents who interact with and influence each other, and who are capable of adapting to changing environmental conditions. The results of our simulation suggest that variable temperatures led to less effective pest control strategies than those used under stable temperatures. Moreover, farmers used information gained through their own past experience or through interactions with other farmers to initiate an adaptive management approach. At a broader scale, this study generates more than an increased understanding of adaptive management; it highlights how people depend on one another to manage common problems.

Performance of baited traps for integrated management of Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) in a conilon coffee crop in Rondônia State, Brazil

“…Climatic data is relevant to agricultural systems, since it is indispensable information for pest management in these environments (MorriS et al 2015). Therefore, in integrated pest management (IPM) programs of H. hampei, considering the climatic conditions of the environment in order to understand its bioecological and behavioral aspects, according to the peculiarities of the place where the coffee crop is inserted, is extremely important (rEbaudo & danglES 2015). There is still no such information on coffee plantations in the Amazon region that would provide indications of more appropriate management of this pest considering these factors in this region.…”

“…Broadly speaking, the traps were effective tools in indicating the behavior and activity of H. hampei throughout the day. Currently, sustainable agriculture bases its actions on a number of factors, including environmental factors, for pest management decisions (rEbaudo & danglES 2015). Thus, understanding their behavior and its relationship with the environmental factors is information that cannot be discarded for the integrated management of this pest in the Amazon region, allowing for more effective control agents against the pest and more cost-effective inputs.…”

The Azteca Chess experience: learning how to share concepts of ecological complexity with small coffee farmers

“…Furthermore, they generally lack a framework for learning about subtle ecological processes that would improve pest control at broad spatial and temporal scales (Rebaudo and Dangles 2015).…”

AgTech that doesn’t cost the Earth: Creating sustainable, ethical and effective agricultural technology that enhances its social and ecological contexts

“…agent-based models, cellular automata, L-systems, network-models) have been applied to bee-pollination [28], land use [29], plant/herbivore interactions [30] and livestock movement [31]. Spatial ecological interactions, information exchange, trade and cooperation in social systems and technology innovation, also form relevant streams in AL simulation research [32][33][34][35]. Such approaches can shift AgTech to explore new ideas, promote engagement, and anticipate implementation outcomes.…”